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MNI BoT Preview-December 2024: On Hold To Remain Neutral

We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave rates at 2.25%.
Asia Bank - PreviewBank of Thailand - PreviewAPACAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewStoryThailand

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave rates at 2.25% given Governor Sethaput said that the bar is “reasonably high” for further easing and BoT’s desire to keep policy at neutral and consistent with the growth and inflation outlook.
  • BoT expects headline inflation to reach the bottom of its 1-3% band by the end of this year and for it to average 1.2% in 2025 up from 0.5% in 2024. Updated forecasts will be included in the meeting statement.
  • Growth has trended higher over the last year driven by exports and government spending. Private consumption is expected to recover supported by fiscal stimulus and stronger tourist arrivals. With exports an important source of growth, the uncertain trade outlook is a downside risk though.
  • With inflation still low and risks around the growth outlook, further easing in H1 2025 is possible.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoT Preview - December 2024.pdf

  

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave rates at 2.25% given Governor Sethaput said that the bar is “reasonably high” for further easing and BoT’s desire to keep policy at neutral and consistent with the growth and inflation outlook.
  • BoT expects headline inflation to reach the bottom of its 1-3% band by the end of this year and for it to average 1.2% in 2025 up from 0.5% in 2024. Updated forecasts will be included in the meeting statement.
  • Growth has trended higher over the last year driven by exports and government spending. Private consumption is expected to recover supported by fiscal stimulus and stronger tourist arrivals. With exports an important source of growth, the uncertain trade outlook is a downside risk though.
  • With inflation still low and risks around the growth outlook, further easing in H1 2025 is possible.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoT Preview - December 2024.pdf