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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Aussie Budget To Cut Growth Outlook, Deficit Lower
The Australian Treasury will downgrade its growth outlook when its releases its Budget on Oct 25, signalling a much smaller deficit than forecast by the previous government in March thanks to high commodity prices and the strong jobs market.
Growth will be trimmed to 3.25% from 3.5% for the 2022-23 fiscal year, while the growth forecast for 2023-24 will be cut to 1.5% from 2.5% as higher interest rates and inflation sap household spending, according to draft figures from the Treasury. (See MNI INSIGHT: RBA Watches Calmly As Red-Hot Housing Cools)
The Budget will forecast inflation to peak at 7.75% in the December quarter, similarly to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The forecast for inflation in 2022-23 will be raised to 5.75% from 5.5% in July when the Treasurer delivered an update, while next fiscal year's forecast will lifted to 3.5% from 2.75% - above the RBA 2-3% inflation target. The RBA is expected to lift rates by 25bps when it meets on Nov 1.
The deficit for 2022-23 is estimated by economists to be around AUD30 billion lower than the Pre-election Fiscal and Economic Outlook in March that forecast a shortfall of AUD79.8 billion. An additional AUD100 billion of revenue over the forecast period thanks to high commodity prices is expected to deliver lower-than-expected deficits over the next two years. However, deficits are then set to rise due to the rising cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.