MNI BRIEF: BOJ's Dec Real Export Index Drops 4.7% M/M

The Bank of Japan's real export index, calculated using Ministry of Finance trade data, fell 4.7% m/m in December for the first drop in four months following a revised 0.1% rise (from a preliminary 0.04% fall) in November.

The figures were calculated by MNI based on BOJ data and confirmed by bank officials. The BOJ will release details of the index on Tuesday.

The average real export index for the October-November period rose 0.7% from the previous quarter. Bank officials expected exports and production to slow in the fourth quarter on the back of slowing overseas demand, mainly from the Chinese economy.

But they expect the two economic components to remain firm, supported by the waning of supply-side constrains and high levels of order backlogs for automobiles and capital goods. But they are paying attention to how the U.S. and Chinese economies evolve in and after the first quarter of 2023.