MNI BRIEF: BOJ Sees FY26 CPI at 2%
MNI (SYDNEY) - The Bank of Japan on Friday revised its median forecast for the core consumer price index in fiscal 2026 to +2.0% from October’s 1.9% but left its core-core CPI view for fiscal 2026 unchanged at 2.1%.
The BOJ board’s core CPI median forecast for fiscal 2025 was revised up to +2.4% from the 1.9% made in October and the core-core CPI forecast during the fiscal year was left at 2.1%.
“Risks to economic activity are generally balanced. Risks to prices are skewed to the upside for fiscal 2024 and 2025,” the BOJ Outlook report noted.
The BOJ is vigilant against forex moves, saying “exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, more likely to affect prices.”
The bank maintained its economic view. “Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate.”
It also said that the y/y rate increase in the CPI (all items less fresh foods) is likely to be in the range of 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2024, at around 2.5% for fiscal 2025, and at around 2% for fiscal 2026. (See MNI BOJ WATCH: Board To Discuss Hike, Shift Outlook)