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MNI BRIEF: Bullard-Fed At Low End Of Sufficiently Restrictive

(MNI) Washington

The Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes since early last year have brought monetary policy into the low end of what might be called sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation back to the 2% target, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard wrote in an essay published Thursday.

"Since the FOMC has raised the policy rate aggressively during 2022 and into 2023, monetary policy is now at the low end of what is arguably sufficiently restrictive given current macroeconomic conditions," said Bullard, who has previously argued he would probably like to see another 50 basis points of tightening from the current 5-5.25% level of the federal funds rate.

"But where within the sufficiently restrictive zone should the policy rate be? And are there other factors to consider (e.g., financial stability)? Such assessments could be reflected in judgments by the FOMC going forward," he wrote. "The prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed, and continued vigilance is required." (See MNI POLICY: Fed Most Divided Since Start of Hikes, More Loom)

A line chart shows the Fed's policy rate coming in under a gray-shaded area, which is bounded by policy rate recommendations based on a Taylor-type rule with generous assumptions and a Taylor-type rule with less generous assumptions, from late 2021 to early 2023.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202 371 2121 |
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202 371 2121 |

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