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Canada's gross domestic product bounced back in the third quarter with consumers returning to clothing stores and restaurants as pandemic shutdowns eased, and a flash estimate signaled fourth-quarter momentum in line with the central bank's view a solid rebound was forming.
Output grew at a 5.4% annualized pace, Statistics Canada said Tuesday, and a flash estimate showed a 0.8% October gain. StatsCan further marked down Q2 to a 3.2% decline from 1.1%. The BOC projected Q3 at 5.5% and Q4 at 4.0% before the omicron variant emerged. Wages rose 2.9% from Q2, which excluding the first re-opening last year is the most since 2000.
Household spending rose at an 18% annualized pace, one of the biggest gains since the 1970s, and even after cashing in some pandemic relief checks the savings rate remained in double digits, suggesting more is coming. Exports rebounded with a gain of 8% led by crude oil, following a Q2 decline of 17%.
The report is one of the last big pieces of data before a Dec. 8 BOC decision where it's likely to hold a record low 0.25% policy interest rate. Governor Tiff Macklem said a rate hike would be justified by stable 2% inflation and an economy back at full output, and at the last meeting said those goals could be met in the "middle quarters" of next year instead of the second half.