MNI BRIEF: Data, Staff Forecasts Key To November - RBA Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia Board noted updated data on economic activity, inflation and the labour market, alongside a set of revised staff forecasts, will factor heavily into its Nov 4 cash rate decision, according to the minutes of its Oct 3 meeting published Tuesday.

The board noted September’s monthly CPI print, which rose 5.2%, suggested progress to lower services price inflation remained slow, while petrol prices would underpin inflation over coming months and influence households’ inflation expectations. “Members acknowledged that upside risks were a significant concern given how long inflation is likely to remain above target,” the board noted.

The minutes showed continued strength in the housing market could also weigh on future decisions. “The associated rise in household wealth could support consumption by more than currently assumed, especially if housing turnover were to pick up more quickly than expected," the board added. "The rise in housing prices could also be a signal that the current policy stance was not as restrictive as had been assumed.”

The board choose to hold the cash rate at 4.1% this month, its fourth consecutive pause. (see MNI BRIEF: Aussie Monthly CPI Rises To 5.2%)