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MNI BRIEF: ECB SPF Shows Slight Downward Inflation Shift

(MNI) London

Headline inflation is expected to fall from 5.6% in 2023 to to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, according to the latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, with longer-term expectations unchanged at 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for core inflation were unchanged for 2023 at 5.1%, but were revised down by 0.2% to 2.9% and by 0.1% to 2.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Levels of uncertainty around the outlook remained elevated, with the impact of higher oil prices a key concern. The balance of risks to the GDP growth outlook remained tilted to the downside. Average unemployment rate expectations dipped slightly, to 6.5-6.7% for 2023 to 2025 and 6.5% for 2028.

GDP growth expectations in the fourth quarter of 2023 survey round stood at 0.5% for 2023, 0.9% for 2024, 1.5% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2028.

MNI Frankfurt Bureau | +49-69-720-146 |
MNI Frankfurt Bureau | +49-69-720-146 |

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