Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
U.S. employment may have notched a "very modest" increase in July, according to a St. Louis Fed analysis of real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase, bank economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
The St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index "shows a very modest increase, a notable difference with the strong upward trajectory since the beginning of the year," Dvorkin said. It is predicting a positive employment gain of 377,000, not seasonally adjusted, but an increase of only 20,000 seasonally adjusted for the month. The figures correspond to the BLS's household survey.
"This suggests that the cooling down of the labor market is showing up in the Homebase data," Dvorkin said.
Markets are expecting Friday's jobs report to show U.S. payroll gains slowing to 250,000 from 372,000 a month earlier, based on the BLS establishment survey. The establishment and household surveys have diverged in some months but show a similar aggregate trend over the first half of the year, an increase of 2.7 million jobs and 2.1 million employed people, respectively.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.