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MNI BRIEF: Fed Jobs Model Sees Notably Slower Hiring In July

Photo by Maxwell Jayes on Unsplash
(MNI)

U.S. employment may have notched a "very modest" increase in July, according to a St. Louis Fed analysis of real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase, bank economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.

The St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index "shows a very modest increase, a notable difference with the strong upward trajectory since the beginning of the year," Dvorkin said. It is predicting a positive employment gain of 377,000, not seasonally adjusted, but an increase of only 20,000 seasonally adjusted for the month. The figures correspond to the BLS's household survey.

"This suggests that the cooling down of the labor market is showing up in the Homebase data," Dvorkin said.

Markets are expecting Friday's jobs report to show U.S. payroll gains slowing to 250,000 from 372,000 a month earlier, based on the BLS establishment survey. The establishment and household surveys have diverged in some months but show a similar aggregate trend over the first half of the year, an increase of 2.7 million jobs and 2.1 million employed people, respectively.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com

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