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MNI BRIEF: Forecasts To Change, Policy Impact Unclear- RBA Gov

(MNI) Melbourne

The Reserve Bank of Australia will change its economic forecasts following recent elevated quarterly and monthly inflation prints, but it is unclear whether this will materially impact monetary policy, Governor Michele Bullock told a senate committee Thursday.

“We are still analysing the numbers… there is going to be a change to our forecasts. We have to look at whether or not it’s material enough to change our views on policy,” she said.

CPI rose 1.2% in the September quarter and 5.4% y/y, while the monthly read – released simultaneously – increased 5.6% y/y, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday. (See MNI BRIEF: Aussie CPI Measures Higher Than Expected) RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a hawkish tone during her first public speech in Sydney Tuesday, noting the board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation. (See MNI: Fresh Forecasts To Dictate RBA's Nov Decision - Bullock)

At the hearing, Bullock noted persistent service inflation had driven the recent CPI reads. “Consistently we’re seeing that although services inflation is declining, it’s still higher than we’re comfortable with. And it’s also reasonably persistent. So, in a sense, [Wednesday’s CPI] reinforced all of that for us.”

The RBA Board next meets Nov 7.

Daniel covers the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and leads the Asia-Pacific team.
Daniel covers the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and leads the Asia-Pacific team.

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