MNI BRIEF: Japan Factory Output Rises First In Three Months

Japan's industrial output rose 0.2% m/m in September, its first rise in three months, following a 0.7% fall in August, due to higher production of motor vehicles and general-purpose, and business oriented machinery, data released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed on Tuesday.

The September data printed largely in line with the Bank of Japan's view that industrial production has been more or less flat, but a weak outlook could make BOJ officials more cautious.

Production for automobiles rose 6.0% m/m in September for the first rise in two months following the 3.9% decline in August. Production for electrical machinery and information, and communication electronics equipment fell 2.9% m/m, the first drop in two months following August's 1.0% rise.

Based on its survey of manufacturers, METI projected industrial production would rise 3.9% in October, up from its 3.8% forecast last month, before falling 2.8% in November.

Adjusting the upward bias in output plans, METI forecasted production would rise 1.1% m/m in October and production would fall 2.8% in November. Based on this assumption, and if December output remains flat, production would fall 0.9% q/q over Q4, the second straight drop following the 1.3% decline in Q3.