MNI BRIEF: Japan Q4 GDP To Rise 0.3% Q/Q; 1.4% Annualised

Japan's economy in Q4 2023 is expected to have grown for the first time in two quarters, thanks to stronger capital investment and net exports, although private consumption was flat, economists predicted.

Economists expect preliminary Q4 GDP to rise by 0.3% on quarter, or an annualised 1.4% following Q3's -0.7% q/q, or an annualized -2.9%.

Economists predicted private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, to remain unchanged q/q vs -0.2% for Q3.

The Cabinet Office will release preliminary Q4 GDP at 0850 JST on Thursday, February 15 (2350 GMT on Wednesday, February 14).

Capital investment during the fourth quarter is expected to have risen 0.2% q/q, recovering from –0.4% for the third quarter and for the first rise in three quarters.

Public investment is expected to have fallen 0.3% q/q vs. Q3’s -0.8%.

Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected to have made a positive 0.3 percentage point contribution to the total domestic output, after falling 0.1 percentage point contribution.