MNI BRIEF: Japan's Q4 GDP To Rise 0.5% Q/Q; Annualized 1.9%

Japan's economy is expected to have expanded for the first time in two quarters over the October-December period on solid private consumption and net exports, although capital investment slowed, eight economists predicted.

Economists are looking for preliminary Q4 GDP to be higher by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, or an annualized 1.9%, following a decline of 0.2% q/q, or an annualized -0.8%, in the third quarter of 2022.

Economists expect private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the GDP, to have risen 0.4% q/q, accelerating from a rise of 0.1% in the third quarter.

The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Tuesday, Feb. 14 (2350 GMT on Monday, Feb. 13).

Capital investment during the fourth quarter is expected to have risen 0.1% q/q, slowing from a gain of 1.5% in the third quarter.

Net exports of goods and services - exports minus imports - are expected to have made a positive 0.4 percentage point contribution to the total domestic
output, after subtracting 0.6 percentage point in the third quarter.

Economists expect Japan’s economy to grow in the first quarter due to a recovery of inbound tourists and no government restriction. But the economy is being hit by the slowing global economy and high prices caused by the rise in import prices.