MNI BRIEF: Q1 Real Export Index Falls 3.3% M/M - BOJ

The Bank of Japan's real export index, calculated using Ministry of Finance trade data, declined 3.3% q/q over the January-March period – the first drop in three quarters following Q4 2022's 0.7% gain, data MNI understands.

BOJ officials confirmed the figures, which MNI calculated using the Bank's data which was released on Thursday. The BOJ will release details of the index on April 25.

The real export index rose 1% m/m in March for the second straight rise following a revised 0.2% in February, from a preliminary 1.5% increase.

The BOJ in March lowered its assessment on exports and production following weak data, noting exports and industrial production have been more or less flat (See: MNI BRIEF: BOJ Keeps Recovery View; Cuts Exports, Production). BOJ officials expect the slowing global economy to weigh on exports and production, but a sharp decline on the two components is unlikely as supply-side restrictions ease.

Exports rose 4.3% y/y in March, down from February's 6.5%, while imports increased 7.3% y/y for the 26th straight gain following the 8.3% recorded last month, Ministry of Finance data released Thursday showed (See: MNI BRIEF: Japan Exports Continue To Rise, Despite BOJ View).