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MNI BRIEF: Real-Estate Steel Decline Offset By Growth Areas

MNI (Beijing)

Beijing's property sector reforms and a shrinking population will see the property sector's proportion of total China steel demand fall from 35%-40% to 30% in the future, according to Mysteel analysts on Wednesday, although the decline would be offset by growth from white goods, automobile, ship making, as well as infrastructure.

Steel exports, would fall by 10 to 20 million tonnes y/y in 2024, after increasing 36% to 90.2 million tonnes in 2023, given trade friction, tighter export supervision and increased capacity from South East Asia.

Steel demand could rebound this year following an estimated 2.2% decline in 2023 should government policies reverse property-sector weakness and new growth drivers expand, local analysts and traders recently told MNI. (See: MNI: China 2024 Steel Demand Hinges On Property Investment)
MNI Beijing Bureau | lewis.porylo@marketnews.com
MNI Beijing Bureau | lewis.porylo@marketnews.com

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