MNI BRIEF: Riksbank Split On Inflation Outlook Risks

The Riksbank board was unanimous in keeping rates unchanged and pointing to a hike in H2 2024, the minutes of the February 10 meeting suggest, although differing opinions were expressed as regards an appropriate time for a first rate rise. Three Board members entered reservations against the decision on, and forecast for, asset purchases, the minutes added, advocating smaller asset purchases during Q2 and that purchases will then be gradually tapered during the second half of the year.

The minutes highlight the upward revision to the inflation forecast, but underline that CPIF, the Riksbank's preferred measure, is 'projected to fall back over the year, as energy prices are not expected to continue to increase.'

The members discussed the uncertainty over inflation and differed regarding the risks related to the forecast and whether it is the risk of higher or lower inflation than in the Riksbank's main scenario that is most prominent.