MNI BRIEF: Slowing UK Inflation Boosts Summer Rate Cut Hopes
ONS data shows headline UK inflation slowed in year to April.
UK consumer prices rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to April, down from 3.2% in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. It was the lowest year-on-year headline reading since July 2021, but came in higher than the expected deceleration to 2.1%
Falling gas and electricity prices resulted in the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in annual CPI rates, while the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from motor fuels, with prices rising this year but falling a year ago. Core CPI rose by 3.9% in the 12 months to April 2024, down from 4.2% in March. The CPI goods annual rate turned negative, falling from 0.8% to -0.8%, while the CPI services annual rate eased slightly, from 6.0% to 5.9%.
Despite the modest overshoot in headline inflation versus expectations, there was little to deter the Bank of England from a summer rate cut. However, the continued strength of service sector inflation will, for now, keep the MPC focussed on a data-dependent rate path over coming quarters. (see MNI INTERVIEW: BOE Models Can Ditch 2% Inflation Expectations)