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U.S. employment likely rose by 450,000 in February as measured by the BLS's household survey, according to St. Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin's analysis of real-time employment data from scheduling software company Homebase.
Annual revisions to the BLS's population estimates at the start of the year complicate how to read the model's output for February. The St. Louis Fed model had undershot the better-than-expected January jobs report, but the improvement in the household survey at the start of the year largely reflected a 1 million increase in U.S. population and less so the growing share of employed people, Dvorkin said.
Using January as a base, the model expects a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.5 million employed for February. But with December as a base, the model sees a 184,000 decline in employed. "My personal forecast is in between these two numbers," Dvorkin said.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.