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MNI BRIEF: Stronger Capex To Push Up Japan Q4 GDP Revision

(MNI) Tokyo

Japan's economy in the October-December period grew at a faster pace than initially estimated which will push up capital investment and GDP estimates, economists predicted in the wake of a key government survey.

The median forecast by seven economists for revised Q4 GDP is +0.3% q/q, or an annualised 1.1%, compared with the preliminary estimate of -0.1% q/q, or -0.4% annualised.

The economists expect capex to be revised to 2.5% q/q from initial estimate of -0.1% following the government’s data, which showed that capex excluding software rose 16.4% y/y in Q4, up from 3.4% in Q3.

The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP data for the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Monday, March 11 (2350 GMT on Sunday, March 10).

Economists forecast private consumption to remain unrevised at -0.2% on quarter. Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected to have made a positive 0.2 percentage point contribution to the total domestic.

The Bank of Japan will likely aim to change its easy monetary policies at the March or April meetings. (See MNI POLICY: Weak Yen Fuels Wage, Prices; Authorities Vigilant)

MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 |
MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 |

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