MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Raises 2024 Inflation Forecast

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its projection for year-end inflation from 36% to 38% on Thursday after price rises exceeded those seen in February, but kept forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 14% and 9%, respectively. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: CBRT Seen Easing Later In Year, Lira Permitting)

Consumer price inflation was 69.8% in April, due to sticky service sector prices, backwards price indexation and the termination of support measures for energy price now expected to see further increases in May.

Inflation will ease in the second half of the year, the CBRT said in May’s Inflation Report, due to moderating domestic demand, real appreciation of the lira, favourable base effects and improving inflation expectations. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: Lira Key To Inflation - ex-CBRT's Ozatay)

May’s inflation peak will represent the end of the "transition period" the CBRT has underlined in its policy communications, governor Fatih Karahan said in an accompanying speech.