MNI BRIEF: US Jobs Lowest In 2-1/2 Years, Jobless Rate Dips

U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, lower than analysts expected and the weakest reading since December of 2020, as the unemployment rate eased to 3.6% and wage growth picked up.

Wall Street had forecast payrolls growth of 225,000, a jobless rate of 3.6% and average hourly earnings of 0.3%. AHE grew 0.4% last month, bringing the year-on-year rate to 4.4%, a trend that will be concerning for Fed officials. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Demand-Driven Inflation Rising-Fed's Shapiro)

Treasury futures rebound off lows after June employment data comes in softer than forecasted. Futures markets still expect the Fed to raise rates at its July meeting.

June payrolls growth slowed from its average monthly gain of 280,000 over the year and employment in April and May were revised down by a combined 110,000. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.

As measured by the household survey, employment rose a slightly higher 273,000 last month. The labor force participation rate (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.3) were unchanged in June and remain below their pre-pandemic levels.