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MNI BRIEF: US Rents Seen Spiking To Mid-2023 Peak-Dallas Fed

(MNI) WASHINGTON

Shelter components will continue to add more pressure to overall U.S. inflation before peaking in mid-2023 and moderating slightly to still-high levels just under 7%, according to an updated analysis from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Year-over-year OER inflation is expected to continue rising from 5.4% in June 2022 to 7.7% in May 2023 before easing and rent inflation is expected to increase from 5.8% in June 2022 to 8.4% in May 2023. In a previous analysis in July, a Dallas Fed economist told MNI rent and owners' equivalent rent inflation was expected to accelerate to 7% by early next year.

The Dallas Fed economists expect the shelter component to add another 0.35 percentage points to the headline PCE inflation in the coming months before slowing in second quarter 2023 and falling to 0.15 percentage points at year-end 2023.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com

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