Free Trial

Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Tuesday:


Corrective Bounce


Bearish Threat Following Friday’s Sell-Off


Finds Support Below The 50-Day EMA

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI INSIGHT: Retail Sales Point To Strong Australia Q4 GDP

MNI (Sydney)

With Christmas spending ahead, further support to retail is expected.

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

Australia’s third quarter GDP surprised on the upside with a narrower than expected 1.9% contraction in data released on Wednesday, and MNI understands that analysts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics are expecting a positive result in Q4 despite lockdowns for much of the quarter.

Through the pandemic the ABS has seen household spending decline with increases in purchases on items such as takeaway food and alcohol not compensating for these falls. Household spending fell 4.9% in the September quarter.

Government spending was higher, up 0.7%, in pandemic related areas such as the vaccine rollout and contact tracing, but once again this did not compensate for the decline in household consumption.


Markets are watching the strength of the recovery from lockdowns with some questions over the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate stance, see: MNI STATE OF PLAY: Ambiguity On Inflation Clouds RBA Rate View.

MNI understands a key indicator for the ABS was last week’s data release showing a 4.9% month on month increase in national retail sales for October, a result which indicates the economy is already gaining momentum in a likely pointer for Q4 GDP.

The Q3 figures showed that the household savings ratios increased to 19.8% from 11.8% over the quarter, as in previous lockdowns, and the ABS has seen a significant portion spent when lockdowns ease.

With another month of this quarter to include Christmas spending, and with Australian households with money in their accounts from lockdown savings, the ABS sees a buoyant end of 2021 and good beginning for 2022.