MNI:Canada Nov GDP Keeps Growing As Market Sees 2023 Recession

Canada's gross domestic product grew 0.1% in both October and November as gains in services overtook weakness in heavy industry, capping off a year of resilience before what many economists predict will turn into a mild recession in 2023.

Statistics Canada said Friday that service industry output grew for a sixth straight month in October with a 0.3% gain, while goods production fell 0.7% after four previous increases. The October gain matched the consensus forecast while the November figure is a flash estimate. The agency also revised up its estimate for September a notch to show a 0.2% increase.

The report showed some areas of strength and weakness that likely won't be repeated. Entertainment spending rose in October as the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs and there was a late start to the National Hockey League pre-season in September. Wholesale trade saw a rise as pharmacies stocked up on Covid boosters targeting the Omicron strain. There was also a 3.9% drop in oil extraction linked to scheduled maintenance work at some synthetic crude upgraders in Alberta. Finally, the public sector grew 0.4% after a September lull linked to time off to mark Queen Elizabeth's funeral.

Beneath those trends, manufacturing more tied to global demand fell 0.7% in October, the fourth decline in six months and the lowest since December 2021. Most economists see a technical recession early next year, though starting from a position of strength with unemployment near record lows, wage gains picking up, and Q3 GDP growth at about a 3% annualized pace.

The Bank of Canada has said higher interest rates are needed to slow the economy so supply and demand come back into balance. After hiking rates 4 percentage points this year, Governor Tiff Macklem says he could pause amid signs growth will stall in the first half of 2023, helping restrain overheated price gains.

This is the last GDP report before the BOC’s Jan. 25 rate decision, though there will be readings on jobs and inflation.