MNI: Canadians Doubt BOC Wins Inflation Fight-Internal Polls

Just one in five Canadians trust the Bank of Canada will return inflation to target within two years according to internal surveys obtained by MNI, results a spokesman said remain consistent with other evidence that longer-term expectations remain well anchored.

“Most Canadians (46%) are favourable towards rising the key interest rate” according to a public perceptions survey dated Nov 27 prepared by pollsters Ipsos for the BOC and obtained via a freedom-of-information request. “However, a majority (50%) of Canadians are pessimistic about the Bank’s ability to bring inflation back to the 2% target over the next two years, while only one in five (20%) say they trust it to do so.”

The survey was the most recent among 85 pages of documents sought covering a period from June 2022 to about a year later. "Trust in the Bank’s performance has not changed significantly compared to earlier this year, but trends significantly lower compared to this time last year,” according to another slide.

TAKING SEVERAL STEPS

"In terms of inflation expectations, the results are consistent with what we’ve seen in our consumer surveys – near-term expectations remain elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored," BOC Media Relations Director Paul Badertscher said.

"The Bank has taken and is taking several steps," around the question of trust, Badertscher said, including publishing rate-meeting summaries, plain-language publications, social media clips of announcements and more press conferences. Governing Council members will visit communities across the country to explain the Bank’s work, he said.

The polling was done as Governor Tiff Macklem raised the key interest rate to the highest since 2001 at 5% from near zero during the pandemic. Consumer price increases have slowed to about 3% from a peak of 8% but have been above target for almost three years.

“Few Canadians tend to blame the Bank of Canada for rising prices and around half (47%) believe that inflation is about the same when comparing to other countries, while 21% believe it to be worse,” according to the documents.

'PASSIVES' AND 'CHALLENGERS'

Politicians have blamed the Bank both for being too lax on inflation and for crushing the economy by hiking rates, arguments the polling showed failed to gain traction with most respondents.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says the Bank boosted inflation by printing too much money and promised to fire Macklem if he wins an election due by next year, yet just 15% of those asked said that’s what drove up prices. Rather than money creation, pandemic or supply chain problems were most commonly seen as the culprit for inflation, while 33% of those surveyed cited "businesses taking advantage" -- an argument similar to that made by the left-leaning NDP.

Another study dated March 2023 said "Trust in the Bank's ability to carry out its key mandates" declined to less than 40% for the first time since 2018. Respondents in some ways reflected the debate officials were having about how much further to raise borrowing costs.

“Almost six in ten (58%) believe the Bank should stop increasing interest rates to give them time to impact the economy while half (51%) believe these increases are pushing the economy into a recession,” the March survey said. “Canadians remain relatively split concerning the Bank’s efforts to control inflation: a third of Canadians (34%) believe the Bank acted too late to control current high inflation, while three in ten (28%) believe the Bank acted in a timely manner.”

Another set of qualitative findings prepared by Ipsos said “Many gave the `benefit of the doubt’ to the Bank” in a section tracking opinions of rising inflation and borrowing costs. One of the reports by Ipsos from last April also reflected divided opinion about monetary policy, breaking respondents into groups labeled "Supporters"; "Potentials"; "Challengers"; "Passives"; "Distant"; and "Disconnected".

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