Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The CBRT are again firmly expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 14.00%
- Rate hikes remain a tail risk, with the bank board unwilling to tighten policy ahead of the election cycle next year
- Bank reiterated that “Liraization” measures will continue to be implemented
The CBRT are again firmly expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 14.00% in July in the seventh consecutive unchanged decision at the bank, which seemingly continues to operate under considerable political influence and is willing to look through inflation that could exceed 80% in the coming months. Looking ahead, rate hikes remain a tail risk, with the bank board unwilling to tighten policy ahead of the election cycle next year. As such, most analysts expect rates at 14.00% into year-end.
Governor Kavcıoğlu has overseen the CBRT’s easing cycle of 500bps of rate cuts since appointment in March 2021. Markets remain of the view that political motivation underpins this unorthodox approach to policy during this rapid inflationary phase. The previous CBRT June 23 statement stated that inflationary pressures were caused by energy prices due to the geopolitical landscape, alongside negative supply shocks. The Bank reiterated that “Liraization” measures will continue to be implemented and resolution of ongoing conflict will see deflationary effects.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.