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MNI CBRT Review - June 2023: "Gradual" Tightening Cycle Begins

Executive summary:

  • The CBRT delivered a below-consensus rate hike of 650bps, taking the one-week repo rate to 15%.
  • The accompanying press release signalled the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle, one which will also involve the easing of macroprudential measures.
  • USD/TRY traded to a fresh record low on the back of the decision as state banks did not intervene to prop up the currency.
See our full review of the decision with a summary of sell-side analyst views here

MNICBRTRevJun23.pdf

The CBRT raised its one-week repo rate from 8.5% to 15%. The accompanying policy statement signalled that further monetary tightening would be delivered “as much as needed” in a “timely and gradual manner”, marking the beginning of a tightening cycle and return to more orthodox monetary policy. In addition to raising rates, the Bank signalled that macroprudential measures will be simplified in order to increase the functionality of market mechanisms. Following the decision, TRY fell to a fresh record low as state-banks did not intervene to prop up the currency.

While the CBRT were widely expected to begin their tightening cycle, the magnitude and pace of return to more conventional policy was not well-guided. Yesterday’s policy statement reveals that such a return will be “gradual”, though “tightening will be further strengthened as much as needed”. The CBRT also acknowledged a rise in the underlying trend of inflation due to the strength in domestic demand, cost pressures and stickiness of services inflation.

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