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MNI CBRT Review - September 2022: Surprise Cut Throws Orthodoxy to the Wind

Executive Summary:

  • The CBRT cut rates 100bps to 12.00%, against expectations of unchanged policy
  • Policy statement flagged a number of indicators suggesting weakening demand
  • Out of 8 sell-side previews seen by MNI, only 1 predicted a rate cut
Full review here:

MNICBRTRevSep23.pdf

The CBRT delivered another surprise 100bps cut in the repo rate, decreasing the benchmark rate to 12.00%. The policy statement cited downward revisions to global growth forecasts, recession risks as well as a slowdown in foreign demand as factors contributing to the decision.

The assessment of inflation was broadly unchanged, explaining the recent increase in inflation by pointing to external factors and rising commodity prices. The Committee again noted that it expects the disinflation process to start on the back of strengthened measures to resolve financial stability, along with the resolution of the ongoing regional conflict.

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