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Free AccessMNI Chicago Business Barometer Moderates to 65.4 in December
--MNI Chicago Business Barometer 65.4 Dec VS 66.4 Nov
--MNI Chicago: Dec Production Highest Since January
--MNI Chicago: Dec Prices Paid Lowest Since February
--MNI Chicago: Dec Delivery Times Hit One-Year Low
LONDON (MNI) - The MNI Chicago Business Barometer eased to 65.4 in
December, down 1.0 point from November's 66.4, the latest survey showed Friday.
Three out of the five Barometer sub-components lost ground on the month,
but solid gains in Production and Order Backlogs helped the headline index
maintain most of November's eight-point rise.
Recording just the fourth year-over-year fall this year, the Barometer
continues to signal a healthy business environment, with the 34th consecutive
reading above the neutral-50 mark.
Over Q4 as a whole, the headline index averaged 63.4, the best calendar
quarter outturn this year
Contributing to December's moderation was a decline in demand, easing
somewhat after surging last month. However, November's order book strength did
translate into higher output this month, with Production rising to an 11-month
high. As last month, firms reported pressure from customers for earlier delivery
on existing orders.
--BACKLOGS
Order Backlogs rose for a second consecutive month, hitting a five-month
high, further reversing October's decline.
Supply-side issues abated in December, though still remain a hinderance.
The Supplier Deliveries indicator fell to its lowest level in a year this month.
In particular, there were reports of firms facing difficulties sourcing metals
as the implementation of tariffs continues to impact businesses.
On balance, firms continued to increase inventory levels in December. There
was anecdotal evidence of firms accumulating stock in preparation for new
product releases and in response to increased orders. For others, however,
inventories remained high by virtue of the unanticipated quietening in demand.
After two consecutive months of higher readings, the Employment indicator
receded in December, hitting a three-month low, although remaining above the
neutral-50 mark.
--PRICES
Inflationary pressures on firms continued to ease in December, with the
Prices Paid indicator falling for the fifth consecutive month and by the biggest
margin in almost four years. Steel and wood were reportedly less expensive in
December, but multiple firms continued to report tariffs keeping prices
elevated, stifling business.
December saw two special questions posed to firms. The first asked for
their proposed business activity forecast for next year. An equal share, 46.8%,
believed their business would expand by a rate below 5% or by a rate between
5-10%, while just 6.4% saw growth coming in above 10%.
The second question focused on labour productivity and the proportion of
their 2019 budget allocated to this. The majority, 51.1%, said they would spend
less than 5% of their budget on maintaining or improving workforce productivity,
while 35.6% said they would spend anywhere between 5-10%. The remaining 13.3%
said they would allocate more than 10%.
"The MNI Chicago Business Barometer saw 2018 out in good health, assisted
by a firm uptick in Production, cementing the best calendar quarter outturn in a
year," said Jai Lakhani, Economist at MNI Indicators.
The survey period ran from December 1 to December 18.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.