MNI Chicago Business Barometer Edges Higher in Dec

MNI CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER 59.5 DEC VS 58.2 NOV

MNI CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER 59.6 Q4 VS 55.2 Q3

MNI CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER: STRONGEST Q/Q READING SINCE Q4 2018

MNI CHICAGO: EMPLOYMENT SHOWED LARGEST M/M INCREASE; AT 1-YEAR HIGH

• The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 59.5 in Dec, hitting a two-month high.
• The indicator increased to 59.6 on a quarterly basis in Q4 and recorded the highest level since Q4 2018.
• All indices saw gains on a quarterly basis in Q4, signalling a further recovery after Q2's slump.
• Among the main five indicators, Employment (48.8) saw the largest monthly gain, followed by Order Backlogs (55.0) which rose to the highest level since Feb 2019.
• Meanwhile, New Orders (58.0) recorded the biggest m/m decline, although the q/q index jumped to a two-year high of 61.0 in Q4.
• Production edged up to 61.9 in Dec, shifting the q/q index up to 61.6, its highest reading since Q4 2018.
• Supplier Deliveries eased slightly to 69.7 in Dec, while Inventories rose to 49.4.
• Prices surged to 76.6 in Dec, showing the highest level since Sep 2018, while quarterly prices jumped to 71.8.
• The majority (44.9%) sees business activity growth below 5% in 2021, while 42.9% expect growth to be between 5% and 10%.
• Anecdotal evidence signals a difference between sectors in terms of business activity with firms in the mail and packaging industry reporting strong growth during the crisis.