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MNI Chicago Business Barometer™ Edges Down to 45.2 in October

US DATA
MNI (London)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, dipped a further half-point to 45.2 in October, contracting for a second consecutive month.

  • Production saw a marginal 0.6-point improvement to 45.1 in October yet remained 10 points below the 12-month average. Over one-third of respondents noted lower production compared to September.
  • New Orders contracted for the fifth consecutive month, declining by a further 3.0 points to 39.2. Weak economic outlooks are dragging on demand. The indicator last fell below 40 in the initial pandemic shock of 2020.
  • Order Backlogs recovered almost half of the September slide, increasing by 5.4 points to 47.3 in October.
  • Employment also rose, up 5.4 points to 45.6 after recording a stark September decline. The indicator was the weakest in six months barring the September fall.
  • Supplier Deliveries moderated by 0.5 points to 59.3 to near pre-pandemic levels as supply pressures continue easing.
  • Inventories grew by 3.9 points to 56.9. Despite remaining high, firms are moving towards normalising levels of stock.
  • Prices Paid saw a small 0.7-point uptick to 74.8 in October. This is 9.6 points below the 12-month average, implying a slower pace of trend price growth.
  • The survey ran from October 1 to 17.

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The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, dipped a further half-point to 45.2 in October, contracting for a second consecutive month.

  • Production saw a marginal 0.6-point improvement to 45.1 in October yet remained 10 points below the 12-month average. Over one-third of respondents noted lower production compared to September.
  • New Orders contracted for the fifth consecutive month, declining by a further 3.0 points to 39.2. Weak economic outlooks are dragging on demand. The indicator last fell below 40 in the initial pandemic shock of 2020.
  • Order Backlogs recovered almost half of the September slide, increasing by 5.4 points to 47.3 in October.
  • Employment also rose, up 5.4 points to 45.6 after recording a stark September decline. The indicator was the weakest in six months barring the September fall.
  • Supplier Deliveries moderated by 0.5 points to 59.3 to near pre-pandemic levels as supply pressures continue easing.
  • Inventories grew by 3.9 points to 56.9. Despite remaining high, firms are moving towards normalising levels of stock.
  • Prices Paid saw a small 0.7-point uptick to 74.8 in October. This is 9.6 points below the 12-month average, implying a slower pace of trend price growth.
  • The survey ran from October 1 to 17.