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MNI Chile Central Bank Preview – May 2022: Pace of Hikes to Slow

Consensus points toward the monetary policy committee hiking the overnight rate by a reduced pace of 100bps to 8.00% at the May meeting.

Executive Summary

  • The BCCh are widely expected to continue their tightening cycle at the May meeting, albeit with a smaller hike relative to the last meeting.
  • Consensus points toward the monetary policy committee hiking the overnight rate by 100bps to 8.00%.
  • However, opposing forces of more dovish prior rhetoric and accelerating inflation dynamics indicate a wider range of potential outcomes for the May meeting.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCCH Preview - May 2022.pdf

President Costa Notes March Inflation Surprise

At the March meeting, the BCCh delivered a below-consensus hike of 150bps and clearly signalled that there would be a reduction in the pace of future hikes. The messaging was clearly dovish relative to market expectations prompting a dramatic relief rally in the front end of the Camara swaps curve.

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Executive Summary

  • The BCCh are widely expected to continue their tightening cycle at the May meeting, albeit with a smaller hike relative to the last meeting.
  • Consensus points toward the monetary policy committee hiking the overnight rate by 100bps to 8.00%.
  • However, opposing forces of more dovish prior rhetoric and accelerating inflation dynamics indicate a wider range of potential outcomes for the May meeting.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCCH Preview - May 2022.pdf

President Costa Notes March Inflation Surprise

At the March meeting, the BCCh delivered a below-consensus hike of 150bps and clearly signalled that there would be a reduction in the pace of future hikes. The messaging was clearly dovish relative to market expectations prompting a dramatic relief rally in the front end of the Camara swaps curve.

Keep reading...Show less