MNI: China Nov Trade Beat Estimates, Export Growth 8-mth High

--Exports Growth Rate Double Previous Month Due to Robust Overseas Demand 

--Imports Growth Beats Estimates as Domestic Production Control Tightened

--Both Export, Import Growth Rates Also Boosted by Base Effect

     BEIJING (MNI) - Data released Friday by the General Administration of

Customs:

                   Balance (bln $)  Exports Y/Y %  Imports Y/Y %

----------------------------------------------------------------

October                       40.2           12.3           17.7

MNI Survey Median             36.5            6.0           11.0

Previous                      38.2            6.9           17.2

     FACTORS:

--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Exports +7.4% m/m VS +1.9% Oct.

--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Imports -5.5% m/m VS +11.2% Oct.

--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Exports +12.8% y/y VS +8.2% Oct.

--CHINA Nov. Seasonally Adj. Imports +17.8% y/y VS +23.2% Oct.

     TAKEAWAY: Chinese export and import growth accelerated in November, with

the export growth rate the highest to eight months. 

     The rise indicated both domestic and overseas demand were robust during

last month, particularly overseas demand due to the coming western holiday

season. 

     Weak comparison bases in November last year also contributed the strong

year-on-year growth rates. Exports grew 0.1% and imports 6.7% in November 2016. 

     According to the General Administration of Customs, November exports rose

12.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms. The growth rate was the highest since

March 2017, double the MNI median forecast for a 6.0% rise and also well above

the 6.9% gain in October

     The result was in line with the official manufacturing PMI sub-index for

exports orders in November, which rose to 50.8, from 50.1 in October.

     Among China's three biggest trading partners, export growth to the United

States decelerated while exports growth to the European Union and to Japan

accelerated.  

     Exports to the U.S. rose 14.3% year-on-year to $42.1 billion, up from 8.1%

growth in October and the highest growth rate since June. Exports to the

European Union grew 13.2% to $33.89 billion, the largest level of exports since

August. The November growth rate to the EU was 11.2% in October. 

     Exports to Japan rose 9.4% to $13.35 billion, the highest growth rate since

April and the largest level this year. 

     "Exports growth remained strong even though the contribution of trade

prices declined, which indicates that overseas demand showed an obvious

improvement, particularly demand from Asia, given the Japanese economy is

recovering," Xie Yaxuan, chief economist with China Merchants Securities, told

MNI.

     Overall imports increased 17.7% year-on-year in November, higher than the

MNI median forecast for a 11.0% gain and up from the 17.2% rise in October.

     "The good performance of imports was due to the production control under

the pressure from environmental protection, so some manufactures turned to

imports to meet demand," Xie said. 

     Imports of iron ore increased 18.93% month-on-month in November with China,

importing 94.54 million tons, compared with a decrease of 22.7% in October. Coal

imports increased 3.62% to 22.05 million, compared with a 21.4% decline in

October. 

     The performance of imports in November was in contrast to the official CFLP

manufacturing PMI, with the import sub-index falling to 50.1 from 50.3 in

October.

     The import growth rate continued to outpace the export growth rate in

October, the 16th consecutive month it has done so, but level of exports

continue to exceed that of imports, resulting in a $40.2 billion trade surplus.

The surplus was higher than the MNI survey median forecast of $36.5 billion and

above October's $38.2 billion surplus. 

     In the first 11 months of this year, the trade surplus amounted to $375.98

billion, below the $472.08 billion surplus in the same period last year, with

exports rising 8.0% y/y and imports up 13.7% y/y for the 11-month period. 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532 5998; email: marissa.wang@marketnews.com

--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com

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