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(M1) Bullish Focus


(M1) New Multi-Month Highs

--Exports Growth Rate Double Previous Month Due to Robust Overseas Demand 
--Imports Growth Beats Estimates as Domestic Production Control Tightened
--Both Export, Import Growth Rates Also Boosted by Base Effect
     BEIJING (MNI) - Data released Friday by the General Administration of
                   Balance (bln $)  Exports Y/Y %  Imports Y/Y %
October                       40.2           12.3           17.7
MNI Survey Median             36.5            6.0           11.0
Previous                      38.2            6.9           17.2
--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Exports +7.4% m/m VS +1.9% Oct.
--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Imports -5.5% m/m VS +11.2% Oct.
--China Nov. Seasonally Adj. Exports +12.8% y/y VS +8.2% Oct.
--CHINA Nov. Seasonally Adj. Imports +17.8% y/y VS +23.2% Oct.
     TAKEAWAY: Chinese export and import growth accelerated in November, with
the export growth rate the highest to eight months. 
     The rise indicated both domestic and overseas demand were robust during
last month, particularly overseas demand due to the coming western holiday
     Weak comparison bases in November last year also contributed the strong
year-on-year growth rates. Exports grew 0.1% and imports 6.7% in November 2016. 
     According to the General Administration of Customs, November exports rose
12.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms. The growth rate was the highest since
March 2017, double the MNI median forecast for a 6.0% rise and also well above
the 6.9% gain in October
     The result was in line with the official manufacturing PMI sub-index for
exports orders in November, which rose to 50.8, from 50.1 in October.
     Among China's three biggest trading partners, export growth to the United
States decelerated while exports growth to the European Union and to Japan
     Exports to the U.S. rose 14.3% year-on-year to $42.1 billion, up from 8.1%
growth in October and the highest growth rate since June. Exports to the
European Union grew 13.2% to $33.89 billion, the largest level of exports since
August. The November growth rate to the EU was 11.2% in October. 
     Exports to Japan rose 9.4% to $13.35 billion, the highest growth rate since
April and the largest level this year. 
     "Exports growth remained strong even though the contribution of trade
prices declined, which indicates that overseas demand showed an obvious
improvement, particularly demand from Asia, given the Japanese economy is
recovering," Xie Yaxuan, chief economist with China Merchants Securities, told
     Overall imports increased 17.7% year-on-year in November, higher than the
MNI median forecast for a 11.0% gain and up from the 17.2% rise in October.
     "The good performance of imports was due to the production control under
the pressure from environmental protection, so some manufactures turned to
imports to meet demand," Xie said. 
     Imports of iron ore increased 18.93% month-on-month in November with China,
importing 94.54 million tons, compared with a decrease of 22.7% in October. Coal
imports increased 3.62% to 22.05 million, compared with a 21.4% decline in
     The performance of imports in November was in contrast to the official CFLP
manufacturing PMI, with the import sub-index falling to 50.1 from 50.3 in
     The import growth rate continued to outpace the export growth rate in
October, the 16th consecutive month it has done so, but level of exports
continue to exceed that of imports, resulting in a $40.2 billion trade surplus.
The surplus was higher than the MNI survey median forecast of $36.5 billion and
above October's $38.2 billion surplus. 
     In the first 11 months of this year, the trade surplus amounted to $375.98
billion, below the $472.08 billion surplus in the same period last year, with
exports rising 8.0% y/y and imports up 13.7% y/y for the 11-month period. 
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532 5998; email:
--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:
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