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MNI China Press Digest Sep 7: Yuan Weakness, Growth Outlook

MNI (Singapore)

MNI summarises the key stories from the Chinese press.

True

The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • Concerns about whether the yuan will breach the critical level of 7 against the U.S. dollar are misplaced as it continues to appreciate against major non-U.S. dollar currencies, the 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. The three major yuan indices - CFETS, BIS and SDR - remain relatively stable, meaning regulatory authorities will take a moderate approach to regulating the FX market and will not pay too much attention to specific levels, the newspaper said citing Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Golden Credit Rating. The yuan has broken through the mark many times since exchange rate reform in 2015, with the PBOC emphasizing two-way movements, the newspaper said.
  • The combination of the People's Bank of China's ample policy tools and a recovery in the economy should allow the yuan to stabilise at 6.7-6.9 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2022, Securities Daily reported citing Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities. The yuan is expected to steady should growth improve in mid-to-late September as a new round of pro-growth policies kick in. The PBOC has the capability to stabilise the yuan and manage capital flows should the currency continue to weaken rapidly against the dollar, the newspaper said.
  • China's economy will continue a gradual recovery over coming months as Covid outbreaks are controlled, Yicai.com reported, citing a poll of 18 economists. Industrial output may accelerate moderately to around 4% in August from July’s 3.8%, as heat wave-related power rationing may deduct less than one percentage point from industrial electricity use. The median forecast for fixed-asset investment growth in the first eight months is 5.46%, lower than the prior 5.7%, as weakness in property and manufacturing investment offsets expanding infrastructure investment. Consumption growth may rebound to 3.83% from July’s 2.7% due to improved car sales in H2.
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The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • Concerns about whether the yuan will breach the critical level of 7 against the U.S. dollar are misplaced as it continues to appreciate against major non-U.S. dollar currencies, the 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. The three major yuan indices - CFETS, BIS and SDR - remain relatively stable, meaning regulatory authorities will take a moderate approach to regulating the FX market and will not pay too much attention to specific levels, the newspaper said citing Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Golden Credit Rating. The yuan has broken through the mark many times since exchange rate reform in 2015, with the PBOC emphasizing two-way movements, the newspaper said.
  • The combination of the People's Bank of China's ample policy tools and a recovery in the economy should allow the yuan to stabilise at 6.7-6.9 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2022, Securities Daily reported citing Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities. The yuan is expected to steady should growth improve in mid-to-late September as a new round of pro-growth policies kick in. The PBOC has the capability to stabilise the yuan and manage capital flows should the currency continue to weaken rapidly against the dollar, the newspaper said.
  • China's economy will continue a gradual recovery over coming months as Covid outbreaks are controlled, Yicai.com reported, citing a poll of 18 economists. Industrial output may accelerate moderately to around 4% in August from July’s 3.8%, as heat wave-related power rationing may deduct less than one percentage point from industrial electricity use. The median forecast for fixed-asset investment growth in the first eight months is 5.46%, lower than the prior 5.7%, as weakness in property and manufacturing investment offsets expanding infrastructure investment. Consumption growth may rebound to 3.83% from July’s 2.7% due to improved car sales in H2.