Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI BanRep Preview - March 2022
Executive Summary
- All surveyed analysts are anticipating the Colombian Central Bank to accelerate the pace of tightening at their March meeting with the most likely outcome a 150bp increase to the overnight lending rate to 5.5%.
- Continued inflationary pressures have seen the annual headline CPI rate exceed 8% alongside a substantial rise in core components.
- Ongoing conflict in Ukraine and associated risks to global growth may negate the need for even bolder action at this juncture.
Click to view the full preview: MNI BanRep Preview - March 2022.pdf
Inflation Outlook Continues To Deteriorate
February headline annual CPI registered at 8.01%, well above the 7.62% median surveyed estimate and significantly higher than 5.62% print prior to the January BanRep meeting. Additionally, the core reading rose to 5.1%, up from 3.44% in the December reading and extending the divergence from the 3% target.
In the latest central bank survey of economists, the 2022 year-end CPI forecast was adjusted to 6.42% versus 5.44% previously as well as 2023 year-end projections rising to 3.83% from 3.69%. The continued deterioration of medium-term expectations warrant an acceleration in the pace of hikes. Indeed, within the same survey, the median survey of economists shows the most probably outcome as being a 150bp increase to the overnight lending rate to 5.50%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.