MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Builds on Recent Strength

Price Signal Summary – AUD Builds on Recent Strength

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent high. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Friday as the uptrend extends. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD is up and Friday’s gains have reinforced the bullish theme. The move higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price is through 1.2589, the 50.0% retracement for the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. USDJPY remains above last week’s low. The price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - signals a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it suggests scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95. AUDUSD has traded higher today, marking a bullish start to this week’s session. The trend needle continues to point north. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The yellow metal has started this week on a bullish note and pierced resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $2022.2. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. The breach on Nov 15, of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13. Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low, and initial support lies at 94.86, the 50-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0965 High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0947 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0734 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and sights are on the recent 1.0965 high (Nov 21). A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1005, Aug 11 high and 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. The trend condition is overbought, a corrective pullback would unwind this condition. Initial support to watch is 1.0825, Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2746 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 1.2724 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2720 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2615 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 1.2610 @ 16:07 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 1.2506/2397 High Nov 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2359 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD is up and Friday’s gains have reinforced the bullish theme. The move higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price is through 1.2589, the 50.0% retracement for the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. This opens 1.2720, the 61.8% retracement level and 1.2724, a vol band resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at 1.2397, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8725/68 High Nov 22 / 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8681 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 0.8663 38.2% Retracement Aug - Nov Upleg
• SUP 2: 0.8650 Low Nov 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

EURGBP traded lower Friday and the cross maintains a softer tone. Price has breached support at the 50-day EMA and has pierced the 200-dma. The move lower signals scope for a deeper retracement, which would target 0.8650 in the short-term, the Nov 6 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.8768, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 1: 149.94 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 148.96 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 147.15 Low Nov 21 and a key support
• SUP 2: 146.38 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY remains above last week’s low. The price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - signals a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it suggests scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. For bears, a break of 147.15, the Nov 21 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and instead open 146.38, trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 163.18 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 161.86/25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 160.11 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and last week’s recovery is a positive development. The cross has recently tested support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.86. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.11. On the upside, a break of 164.30, the Nov 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 164.77, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 0.6713/6723 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6656 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6616 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 0.6584 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 0.6476 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6441/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

AUDUSD has traded higher today, marking a bullish start to this week’s session. The trend needle continues to point north. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. This reinforced the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6616 next, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 0.6446, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trendline Support Cracks

• RES 4: 1.4001 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.3633 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 1.3594 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 1.3573/69 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Oct 10
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD weakness accelerated Friday, with trendline support at 1.3659 cracking. The weekly close below the trendline reinforces a bearish threat. A continuation lower would expose 1.3569, the Oct 10 low, and a break of this level would open 1.3496, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Recent Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 130.28 @ 05:19 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 129.98 Low 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. The breach on Nov 15, of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13, a 1.382 projection of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.040/230 High Nov 22 / 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.300 @ 05:32 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 116.000 Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. However, the contract has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 116.360. A clear break of the EMA would undermine bullish conditions and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards support at 116.000. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 117.230, the Nov 17 high. A break of this level resumes the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 3: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 105.145/265 High Nov 22 / 17
• RES 1: 105.072 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 104.925 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 104.915 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures remain soft and the contract is trading lower today. Price has pierced a key short-term support at 104.925, the Nov 14 low. This cancels a recent bullish engulfing candle pattern and instead highlights scope for a deeper retracement. An extension would open 104.880 next, the Oct 20 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 105.145, the Nov 22 high. A break would be a bullish development.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• RES 3: 99.26 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 98.98 High May 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 96.96/97.99 High Nov 23 / 17
• PRICE: 95.40 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 94.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 94.58 Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: 93.44 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 92.63 Low Nov 1

Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low, and initial support lies at 94.86, the 50-day EMA. A break of 94.58 would undermine a bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance is at 97.99, the Nov 17 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 113.54 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 112.72/111.96 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The recent break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19. Potential exists for a climb towards 115.56, Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 111.96, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 3: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 4369.00 @ 05:44 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 4274.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4236.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Friday as the uptrend extends. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. The recent breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, reinforced the bullish theme. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4274.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4580.50 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4557.50 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4453.93 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4413.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent high. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4453.93, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $80.008 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $80.20 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $78.27 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.12@ 07:12 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Key resistance is unchanged at $79.65, Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2018.2 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $2010.4 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: $1973.9/1952.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The yellow metal has started this week on a bullish note and pierced resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $2022.2, the May 15 high. Key support has been defined at $1931.7, the Nov 13 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support lies at $1973.9, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 3: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $24.821 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $24.664 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: $23.068 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal has traded higher today, starting the week on a bullish note. The break higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position. The focus is on $25.014, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support lies at $23.068, the 50-day EMA.