MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Uptick Falters
Price Signal Summary – AUD Uptick Falters
- Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. The move higher resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low and pierced 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions and highlights the end of the recent corrective bounce. Key short-term support and the bear trigger at 1.2844, the Oct 31 low, has been pierced. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and Wednesday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair has breached resistance at 153.88, the Oct 28 high, highlighting a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact, despite the sharp rally Thursday. Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal has cleared the 20-day EMA and this highlights potential for an extension of the corrective cycle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be corrective. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner and for now, remain above their recent lows. The trend direction is down and Wednesday’s initial break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for an extension towards 129.99. A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.0832 Low Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.0783 @ 06:03 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off Wednesday in EURUSD reinforces current bearish conditions. The move down resulted in a reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction and a breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards 1.0666, the Jun 26 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and 6 high. A break would highlight a potential reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3048 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2969 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.2834 Low Nov 06
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions and highlights the end of the recent corrective bounce. Key short-term support and the bear trigger at 1.2844, the Oct 31 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8380/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8312 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross is training at its recent lows. This week’s move down exposes key short-term support at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a reversal trigger is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high. First resistance is at 0.8380, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 154.71 High Nov 7
- PRICE: 152.78 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 151.44 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 149.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4
The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and Wednesday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair has breached resistance at 153.88, the Oct 28 high, highlighting a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 151.44, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would instead signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.56.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 164.63 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 164.50/163.35 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal that reinforces the current trend condition. Initial support to watch lies at 164.50, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.35, the 50-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement.
AUDUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6841 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6727 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6684/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7
- PRICE: 0.6652 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact, despite the sharp rally Thursday. Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. The recovery from Wednesday's low is considered corrective. Firm resistance is at 0.6684, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would highlight a possible reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3898 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme Remains Intact
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.56 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.22 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 131.45 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 130.58 Low NOv 6
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner and for now, remain above their recent lows. The trend direction is down and Wednesday’s initial break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for an extension towards 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is at 132.22, the Nov 6 high. A break of this level would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.707 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.250 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 117.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures on Oct 30 highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.750 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.690 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the short-term bear trigger. Initial support to watch is 106.485, the Nov 5 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 106.750, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear’s Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 2: 95.31 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.51 @ Close Nov 7
- SUP 1: 922.53 Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial resistance is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.99 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 118.86 @ Close Nov 7
- SUP 1: 117.88 Low Nov 7
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures managed to find some support Thursday. However, despite the bounce, the contract maintains a softer tone. Price has traded lower this week strengthening a bearish threat and a stronger reversal. Sights are on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.99, the Nov 6 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4961.00 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 4871.00 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 4796.00 Low Nov 7
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 3: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low and pierced 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4757.00, the Sep 6 / 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z4) Northbound
- RES 4: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 6033.58 1.236 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: 6028.44 1.236 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6013.00 High Nov 7
- PRICE: 6007.25 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 5846.47/5724.25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. The move higher resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6028.44, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $75.10 @ 060:56 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $74.35 - High Oct 14
- PRICE: $71.83 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be corrective. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $74.35, the Oct 14 high.
GOLD TECHS: Key Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2709.9/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- PRICE: $2684.6 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: $2645.8 - 50-day EMA and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $2628.2 - Low Oct 11
- SUP 3: $2604.9 - Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal has cleared the 20-day EMA and this highlights potential for an extension of the corrective cycle. Attention is on a key support at $2645.8, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would expose $2604.9, the Oct 8 low. For bulls a reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Still Play
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 31.351 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: $30.832 - Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: $30.328 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. The metal has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average signals scope for a deeper retracement towards $30.269, a trendline support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.