MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Extends Pullback, Breaks Key Levels

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Extends Pullback, Breaks Key Levels

• The E-mini S&P contract traded to a high of 4634.50 yesterday before reversing. This highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4638.27 today. Eurostoxx 50 futures rallied Thursday. This resulted in a break of key resistance at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high and a bull trigger. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and mark the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19.
• Recent gains in GBPUSD stalled at Thursday’s high and the pair traded sharply lower. The move down highlights the fact that a bear cycle remains in play. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached. USDJPY is trading in a volatile manner and is softer today, marking an extension of the pullback from 141.96, the Jul 21 high. This exposes key short-term support at 137.25, the Jul 14 low. AUDUSD has traded sharply lower today, extending the reversal from Thursday’s 0.6821 high. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and note that the pair is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Gold traded sharply lower yesterday. The move down resulted in a break of support at the 50-day EMA - at $1951.1. A continuation lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and instead expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13.
• Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Thursday and are trading lower today. The contract has breached 132.23, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a continuation lower. Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and breached first support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a potential bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.64, has also been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Weaker Following Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 Intraday high / High Jul 20
• RES 1: 1.1054 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0969 @ 05:46 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.0956 Trendline support drawn from the May 31 low
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD traded sharply lower Thursday following a reversal from the day high of 1.1150. The move lower reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The pair is testing support at the 50-day EMA at 1.0972 and is just above a trendline support at 1.0956, drawn from the May 31 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0867, the Jul 7 low. First key resistance is at yesterday’s 1.1150 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3263 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2866/2996 20-day EMA / High Jul 27
• PRICE: 1.2779 @ 06:20 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.2737 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2711 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low
• SUP 3: 1.2674 Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 1.2591 Low Jun 29

Recent gains in GBPUSD stalled at Thursday’s high and the pair traded sharply lower. The move down highlights the fact that a bear cycle remains in play. Support at 1.2798 the Jul 24 low, has been breached. The break signals scope for an extension lower towards the 50-day EMA at 1.2737. The base of the bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, lies at 1.2711 today. First key resistance is at 1.2996, yesterday’s high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8690/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 0.8582 @ 06:52 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8523 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP continues to trade closer to this week’s low. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the cross has breached both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The move lower has exposed 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8637, the Jul 25 high. Clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8690 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Move Lower Exposes Support

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.93 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 141.96 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 139.10 @ 07:04 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 135.53 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Jun bull leg

USDJPY is trading in a volatile manner and is softer today, marking an extension of the pullback from 141.96, the Jul 21 high. This exposes key short-term support at 137.25, the Jul 14 low. A breach of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 135.53, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 141.96 would reinstate a bull theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Double Top Reversal

• RES 4: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 156.24 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 155.53 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 153.76 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.97 @ 07:26 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 151.42 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 150.92 Low Jun 14
• SUP 3: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 149.59 Low Jun 8

EURJPY traded sharply lower Thursday. The cross has cleared a trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low - the trendline intersects at 155.32 today. Furthermore, the cross has also cleared 153.49, the Jul 12 low and this highlights a double top reversal on the daily chart. If correct, the move lower signals scope for weakness towards the 150.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 155.53, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6746 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6714 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6629 @ 08:11 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD has traded sharply lower today, extending the reversal from Thursday’s 0.6821 high. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and note that the pair is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for weakness towards the next key support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6821, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3288 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3249 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3235 @ 08:14 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD remains in consolidation mode and is trading above key support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3288, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 133.10/134.01 20-day EMA / High Jul 24
• PRICE: 132.32 @ 05:22 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 132.07 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support

Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Thursday and are trading lower today. The contract has breached 132.23, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 131.61, the 76.4% retracement point. Further out, key support at 130.60, the Jul 10 low, has been exposed. Initial firm resistance is at 134.01, the Jul 24 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200/212 High Jul 24 / 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 115.580 @ 05:53 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 115.333 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures traded through support at 115.540 yesterday, the Jul 21 / 26 low. The break lower undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a continuation lower near-term. This has exposed 115.333, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important support. A break would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key near-term resistance has been defined at 116.200, the Jul 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 105.374 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24 / 27
• PRICE: 104.980 @ 06:11 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend for now, with immediate support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, still intact. A resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185, the Jul 19 high, would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, weakness through 104.805 would instead expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Trades through Support

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 96.81/97.84 High Jul 27 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 95.52 @ 08:23 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 95.11 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 94.96 50.0% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and breached first support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a potential bearish threat and note that the 20-day EMA, at 95.64, has also been cleared. This signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards 94.58, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 97.84, the high on Jul 19. A break is required to resume the uptrend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 116.08 @ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 115.09 Low Jul 14 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures remain below 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact - for now - and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Attention is on the key hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this resistance would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trades Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4546.00 1.00 proj of the Jul 7 - 13 - 26 price swing
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007
• RES 2: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4481.00 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 4456.00 @ 06:30 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 4353.80/4331.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 3: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures rallied Thursday. This resulted in a break of key resistance at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high and a bull trigger. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and mark the end of a broad sideways move that started May 19. This would open 4472.24, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low. A break of this level would be a bearish development.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Channel Resistance Holds

• RES 4: 4711.68 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4639.79 1.764 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4634.50/38.27 High Jul 27 / Bull channel top
• PRICE: 4571.00 @ 05:53 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 4526.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4425.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4391.67 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract traded to a high of 4634.50 yesterday before reversing. This highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4638.27 today. A continuation lower would expose the 20-day EMA - at 4526.43 and a break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Clearance of the channel top is required to resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Heading North

• RES 4: $86.76 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.50 - High Jul 27
• PRICE: $83.91 @ 06:57 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $79.96/78.19 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures traded high yesterday. The contract remains in an uptrend and this week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in bull-mode position highlighting a positive cycle. The contract has cleared all major short-term resistance points and sights are on $85.47, the Apr 12 high. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.19, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $83.59 - High Jul 11 2022
• RES 3: $81.75 - High Jan 23
• RES 2: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 1: $80.60 - High Jul 27
• PRICE: $79.82 @ 07:05 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $75.63/73.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current positive conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Gives Way

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2002.8 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1951.6 @ 07:12 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $1942.7 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold traded sharply lower yesterday. The move down resulted in a break of support at the 50-day EMA - at $1951.1. A continuation lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and instead expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.730 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.202 @ 08:21 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $24.044 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: $23.902 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and short-term weakness appears to be corrective. Support to watch is $23.902, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would undermine the bullish outlook and signal scope for a deeper pullback. The next bull trigger has been defined at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 23, and pave the way for a climb towards $26.135, the May 5 high.