MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Marks Extension of Bear Cycle

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Marks Extension of Bear Cycle

• Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and yesterday's low print reinforces this theme. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA following a recent failure at the top of the bull channel. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following last week’s sharp sell-off from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current condition and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• The short-term trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and recent gains are considered corrective. Last week’s price action reinforced a bearish theme. The pair breached a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2746 today. An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Attention is on resistance at 144.20, the Jul 7 high. A break of this hurdle would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Yesterday’s low print in AUDUSD reinforces bearish conditions and marks a continuation of the bear cycle that started Jul 13. Price is trading below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages also strengthened a bearish theme.
• Gold remains bearish and the price traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. A continuation lower would signal potential for a move towards the key support at $1893.1. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last Friday’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and breached the 20-day EMA, at 132.67. The 50-day EMA at 133.12, has also been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 134.01, the Jul 24 high. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 93.45 next.

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1042 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 1.0964 @ 05:31 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 1.0912 Low Aug 3 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a break of trendline support drawn off the May 31 low and a breach of the 50-day EMA. Clearance of these two chart points strengthens the current bearish theme and opens the 1.0867 Jul 7 low initially ahead of key support 1.0834, the Jul 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.1042, the Aug 4 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2810 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2755 @ 05:52 BST Aug 09
• SUP 1: 1.2621 Low Aug 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

The short-term trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and recent gains are considered corrective. Last week’s price action reinforced a bearish theme. The pair breached a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2746 today, and the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low - currently at 1.2782. This has exposed 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. First resistance is at 1.2810, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: The Medium-Term Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8675/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8656 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 0.8600 @ 06:08 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 0.8585/44 Low Aug 2 / Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8508 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP has pulled back from its recent highs, however, for now a short-term corrective cycle remains in play. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high. From a trend perspective, moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Support to watch lies at 0.8544, the Jul 27 low, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 144.20 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 143.13 @ 06:27 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 141.75/140.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Attention is on resistance at 144.20, the Jul 7 high. A break of this hurdle would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and a break of 145.07 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 141.75, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.13 @ 06:43 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 154.53 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

Short-term conditions in EURJPY remain bullish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Sights are on key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 151.42, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm support lies at 154.53, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 0.6610/6687 High Aug 4 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6558 @ 06:51 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 0.6497 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 0.6458 Low May 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg

Yesterday’s low print in AUDUSD reinforces bearish conditions and marks a continuation of the bear cycle that started Jul 13. Price is trading below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages also strengthened a bearish theme. The continuation lower paves the way for a move towards 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6610, the Aug 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3502 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 1.3412 @ 07:18 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 1.3364 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 1.3299/82 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.3151 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and a bear trigger

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday. The rally resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch is 1.3282, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 133.20 @ 05:02 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 131.82/12 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and breached the 20-day EMA, at 132.67. The 50-day EMA at 133.12, has also been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 134.01, the Jul 24 high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent break of 132.23 and 131.61, 61.8% and 76.4% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally, highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens 130.60.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.340 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 116.180 @ 05:08 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 115.670/230 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures traded higher yesterday and in the process breached resistance at 116.200, the Jul 24 high. The break higher cancels a recent developing bearish threat and instead signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a break of 115.230, the Jul 13 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Resumes The Short-Term Bull Leg

• RES 4: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 105.376 61.8% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.361 100-dma (cont)
• RES 1: 105.295 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 105.235 @ 05:27 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 105.025/104.930 20-day EMA / Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

A short-term uptrend in Schatz futures remains in place and yesterday's move higher reinforces this theme. The contract has breached resistance at 105.185, the Jul 19 high, to confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 6. The break higher signals scope for gains towards 105.376, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 104.930, the Aug 4 low. A break would signal a possible reversal.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 1: 95.57 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 95.03 @ Close Aug 8
• SUP 1: 93.70 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 93.45 76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 92.82 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 93.45 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 96.19, the Jul 31 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Is Back Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 1: 116.14 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 115.69 @ Close Aug 8
• SUP 1: 113.81 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19. However, yesterday’s gains threaten a bearish theme with the contract trading above the 20-day EMA once again. The average intersects at 115.42. A continuation higher would expose 116.14 next, the Aug 2 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.81, the Aug 4 low. A break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4424.00/4513.00 High Aug 2 / High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4379.20 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4343.00 @ 05:43 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 4276.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following last week’s sharp sell-off from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current condition and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, key support at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low, has been cleared. This further strengthens current conditions and opens 4220.00, the Jul 7 low and a reversal trigger. Initial firm resistance is 4424.00, Aug 2 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4681.35 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4670.58 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 1: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 4523.25 @ 06:47 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 4482.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 4459.62 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4434.75 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4411.25 Low Jul 10

Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and yesterday's low print reinforces this theme. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA following a recent failure at the top of the bull channel - this also highlights a bearish development and the risk of an extension lower near-term. Further downside would open 4459.62, the 50-day EMA. First key resistance is at 4634.50, the Jul 27 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $86.73 - High Aug 7
• PRICE: $86.01 @ 06:51 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $82.36/78.10 - Low Aug 3 / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $72.04 - Low Jun 28
• SUP 4: $71.21 - Low My 31

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last Friday’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for a climb towards the psychological $90.00 handle next. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Bullish Market Sentiment

• RES 4: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 2: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $83.59 - High Nov 7 2022
• PRICE: $82.74 @ 06:55 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $78.69/73.78 - Aug 3 low / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last Friday’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position and this reinforces current positive conditions. The focus is on $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $78.69, the Aug 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1948.6 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1931.0 @ 07:13 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $1922.8 - Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $1902.8 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold remains bearish and the price traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. A continuation lower would signal potential for a move towards the key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this support would strengthen bearish conditions. Key resistance is at $1987.5, the Jul 20 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.895/25.267 - 20-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.870 @ 07:26 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $22.666 - Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg

Silver traded lower last week and has maintained a bearish theme this week, extending the current downward cycle. The continuation lower signals scope for a move towards $22.527 next, the Jul 6 low, and $22.111 further out, the Jun 23 low and a key support. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is at $23.895, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.