MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Pierces Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Pierces Key Resistance

• S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday and price remains above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4104.97. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating and holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains. Price remains above support at 4233.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend remains intact.
• EURUSD pierced support at 1.0942 on Tuesday, the Apr 26 low. An extension lower and a clear break of 1.0942 would signal scope for a deeper correction towards 1.0894, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend remains intact and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1095. EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish following this week’s extension lower. The cross has cleared key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and opens 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD maintains a positive short-term tone and yesterday pierced key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. A resumption of gains and a clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold remains in an uptrend. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures are holding on to recent gains. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the move higher has allowed a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures recovered Wednesday finding support at 134.99. Trend conditions remain bullish and a continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposes key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A break of this level would cancel recent bullish developments and highlight a resumption of the downtrend that started Mar 20.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.0974 @ 05:34 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 1.0941 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0894/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD pierced support at 1.0942 on Tuesday, the Apr 26 low. An extension lower and a clear break of 1.0942 would signal scope for a deeper correction towards 1.0894, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend remains intact and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 3: 1.2818 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 1: 1.2680 High May 10
• PRICE: 1.2619 @ 05:51 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 1.2548/2515 Low May 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2436 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Fresh cycle highs this week maintain the bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the focus is on 1.2767 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights positive market sentiment. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2515.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8794 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8725/74 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8698 @ 06:13 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 0.8672 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish following this week’s extension lower. The cross has cleared key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and opens 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8774, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 135.47/64 High May 10 / 50.0% of the May 2 - 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 134.25 @ 06:47 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY short-term conditions are bearish and yesterday’s resumption of weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would open 133.50, the May 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and open 133.02, the Apr 26 low. Note too that a break of 133.50 would confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. Initial resistance is at 135.47, Wednesday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Beraish

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.27/150.39 High May 8 / 3
• PRICE: 147.71 @ 16:28 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 147.04 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 145.98 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

The Recent move lower in EURJPY resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, currently at 147.74 and S/T trend conditions are bearish. A continuation lower and a clear break of this average would expose key support at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA at 145.98. The move lower is considered corrective and trend signals highlight an uptrend. Key resistance is at 151.61, May 2 high. Initial resistance is 149.27, Monday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6818 High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6747 @ 07:57 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 0.6716 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6640/6565 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a positive short-term tone and yesterday pierced key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. A resumption of gains and a clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6565, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and would instead resume the downtrend that started Feb 2. Initial support is at 0.6716, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Tone

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3519/3640 50-day EMA / High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.3410 @ 08:00 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2

USDCAD maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sell-off. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the next key support at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low, where a break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3275, the Feb 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3519, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 136.21/137.22 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 135.87 @ 05:15 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 134.99 Low MAy 10
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures recovered Wednesday finding support at 134.99. Trend conditions remain bullish and a continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, a break below yesterday’s 134.99 low would expose 134.35, the May 2 low. Clearance of this level would open key support at 133.10 instead, the Apr 19 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 118.590/119.120 High May 10 / 4
• PRICE: 118.410 @ 05:24 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 117.930 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 117.923 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and price is trading above the 20-day EMA. The contract recently cleared 118.030, the Apr 26 high, and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 19. The focus is on a 119.190 next, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low. Initial firm support is at 117.923, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 105.940/106.120 High May 10 / 4
• PRICE: 105.880 @ 05:37 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 105.688/475 20-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The focus is on a climb towards 106.190, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement point. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. Initial firm support lies at 105.688, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Watching Key Support

• RES 4: 103.53 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 101.54/102.46 20-day EMA / High May 3
• PRICE: 100.72 @ Close May 10
• SUP 1: 99.97 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposes key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A break of this level would cancel recent bullish developments and highlight a resumption of the downtrend that started Mar 20. This would open 99.20, the Feb 28 low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear 102.46, the May 3 high to reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Finds Support

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.19/84 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 114.82 @ Close May 10
• SUP 1: 113.91 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback is still considered corrective. Initial support has been defined at 113.91, yesterday’s low. A stronger resumption of gains would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. Weakness below 113.91 would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4301.00 @ 06:35 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 4233.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating and holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains. Price remains above support at 4233.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Holding Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4173.25/4206.25 High May 10 / 1
• PRICE: 4163.25 @ 06:50 BST May 11
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday and price remains above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4104.97. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this support would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 3: $79.81 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $78.29 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.60 - High May 10
• PRICE: $77.20 @ 06:59 BST May 11
• SUP 1: $74.95/71.28 - Low May 8 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low May 8 / Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures are holding on to recent gains. The recovery that started on May 4 is considered corrective and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The impulsive bearish wave from Apr 12 signals scope for a test of key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. A break of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $78.29, the 20-day EMA ahead of $79.81, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $73.22 @ 07:07 BST May 11
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures are holding on to recent gains. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the move higher has allowed a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2031.6 07:13 BST May 11
• SUP 1: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• SUP 2: $1971.5/1969.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in an uptrend. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Have Paused For Breath

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.135 - High May 5
• PRICE: $25.311 @ 07:20 BST May 11
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $24.309 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver is consolidating but remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The metal has recently traded above resistance at $26.088, the Apr 14 high. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $26.222, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key near-term support to watch is $24.492, the Apr 25 low. A clear breach would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.