MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Remains Below Bear Trigger

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Remains Below Bear Trigger

• Despite the pullback, S&P E-Minis maintains a firmer tone following last week’s reversal from 3502.00, the Oct 13 low. The latest recovery suggests the contract has entered a corrective phase and if correct, this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone following the recent recovery from 3251.00, Oct 13 low. The move higher has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and resistance at 3492.00, the Oct 6 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD faced resistance Wednesday. The first key resistance intersects at 0.9901. This is the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a channel breakout and a stronger bullish reversal. USDJPY continues to climb as the uptrend extends. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 145.90, the Sep 22 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. The pair maintains a bearish theme and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently cleared 0.6363, the Sep 28 low and bear trigger.
• Gold maintains a softer tone following the recent reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the bull phase between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. WTI futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low of $82.09. The outlook remains bearish and a resumption of weakness would open $80.35, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially $76.25 further out, the Sep 26 low.
• Bund futures are trading lower. The downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The reversal from 142.87, Oct 4 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and has reinforced a broader bearish theme. The primary trend direction in Gilt futures is down. However, a corrective cycle remains in play and yesterday’s gains have reinforced the short-term bullish theme. Price has cleared and closed above the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0051 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 0.9999 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.9901 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 0.9782 @ 06:09 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 0.9711/9633 Low Oct 17 / 13
• SUP 2: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9362 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD faced resistance Wednesday. The first key resistance intersects at 0.9901. This is the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a channel breakout and a stronger bullish reversal. For now, with price trading inside the channel, the trend remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. A stronger move lower would open 0.9633, the Oct 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1590 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1495 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1438 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1234 @ 06:16 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 1.1148/1058 Low Oct 17 / 13
• SUP 2: 1.0924/22 Low Oct 12 / 50.0% of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.0787 61.8% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0541/0350 Low Sep 28 / All Time Low

Short-term conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.0924, the Oct 12 low. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 1.1495, the Oct 5 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight potential for a stronger bullish reversal. On the downside, a break of 1.0924 would instead reinstate a bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 3: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.8733/8867 20-day EMA / High Oct 12
• PRICE: 0.8715 @ 06:33 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

EURGBP continues to trade above its recent lows. The outlook remains bearish following the reversal from 0.9266, the Sep 26 high. Support at 0.8649, the Oct 4 low, has been breached and price has traded below the 50-day EMA. This suggests scope for an extension lower and the focus is on 0.8559, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8867, Oct 12 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Closing In On 150.00

• RES 4: 151.49 1.618 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 151.20 3.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 150.45 3.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 150.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 149.94 @ 06:41 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 148.19/147.06 Low Oct 18 / 14
• SUP 2: 146.14 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.72/143.53 Low Oct 7 / 5
• SUP 4: 142.82 50-day EMA

USDJPY continues to climb as the uptrend extends. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 145.90, the Sep 22 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The breach of 147.66, Aug 1998 high, has also reinforced the bullish theme. The focus is on the psychological 150.00 handle. Firm trend support lies at 146.14, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 3: 148.45 High Dec 15 2014
• RES 2: 147.76 1.236 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 147.26 High Oct 19
• PRICE: 146.64 @ 06:57 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 144.09 High Oct 5
• SUP 2: 143.34/141.63 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone and the cross is holding on to its recent gains. The recent break of 145.64, the Sep 12 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started in May 2020. This clears the way for a move towards 147.76 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial support lies at 144.09, the Oct 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 0.6594 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6363/6418 Low Sep 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6266 @ 07:59 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 0.6170 Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6035 1.50 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. The pair maintains a bearish theme and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently cleared 0.6363, the Sep 28 low and bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and the print below 0.6200 exposes 0.6133 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6404, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.4040 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 1.3898/3977 High Oct 14 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3761 @ 08:04 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 1.3660 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3503 Low Oct 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3415 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Sep 21

USDCAD continues to trade below last week’s high of 1.3977 (Oct 13). The uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, reinforces bullish conditions and this low represents a key support. Moving average studies still highlight an uptrend and 1.3838, Sep 30 high and key resistance has been cleared, strengthening bullish conditions. First support to watch is 1.3649, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 144.56 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 143.68 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 2: 140.13/42.87 High Oct 6 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 138.34 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.45 @ 05:27 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 135.14 Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 135.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 134.65 0.50 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures are trading lower. The downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The reversal from 142.87, Oct 4 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and has reinforced a broader bearish theme with moving average studies remaining in a bear mode position. Key resistance is at 142.87. The 20-day EMA, at 138.34, is the first resistance to watch.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 119.653 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.270 @ 05:31 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 118.020 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.918 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures have traded lower and broken out of the recent range. The primary trend is down. The reversal from 121.950, Oct 4 high confirmed the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 28 and Oct 4. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 118.020, the Sep 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. 121.950 marks key resistance. The 20-day EMA, at 119.773, is the first resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.180/360 High Oct 13 / 6
• RES 1: 107.063 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.550 @ 05:40 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 106.535 Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 2: 106.379 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 106.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.800 Low Nov 2008 (cont)

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down. The recent reversal from 107.770, Oct 4 high, signals a resumption of the broader downtrend and attention is on 106.535, the Sep 26 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 107.770. Initial firm resistance is 107.063, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Has Cleared The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 105.34 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 102.45 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 100.92 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 99.13 High Oct 19
• PRICE: 98.83 @ Close Oct 19
• SUP 1: 92.66 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 90.99/90.38 Low Sep 28 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 88.94 2.764 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)

The primary trend direction in Gilt futures is down. However, a corrective cycle remains in play and yesterday’s gains have reinforced the short-term bullish theme. Price has cleared and closed above the 20-day EMA. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, 90.38, the Oct 12 low, marks key support and is the bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 118.51 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 117.05 High Sep 22
• RES 2: 116.71 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 112.03/113.41 20-day EMA / High Oct 6
• PRICE: 110.27 @ Close Oct 19
• SUP 1: 108.85 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 107.27 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.68 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

BTP futures are consolidating. The trend condition remains bearish. The reversal from 116.71, Oct 4 high, signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 corrective phase. A continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 108.13, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 116.71 marks the key resistance.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 115-13+ Low Sep 7
• RES 3: 114-31+ 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 2: 112-04+/113-30 20-day EMA / High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 111-28+ High Oct 12
• PRICE: 110-15+ @ 14:52 BST Oct 19
• SUP 1: 110-00 Psychological Support
• SUP 2: 109-23+ Low Nov 30 2007 (cont)
• SUP 3: 108-18+ 1.00 projection of the Oct 4 - 11 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.14 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries are trading closer to recent lows and remain vulnerable. The recent breach of 110-19, the Sep 28 low and bear trigger, highlights a resumption of the downtrend plus maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 110.00 and a break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial key resistance is at 112-08+, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Watching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3585.00 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 3533.00 High Sep 20
• RES 1: 3509.00 High Oct 18
• PRICE: 3449.00 @ 05:47 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone
• SUP 3: 3305.00 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 3236.00/3229.00 Low Oct 3 / Low Nov 9 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone following the recent recovery from 3251.00, Oct 13 low. The move higher has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and resistance at 3492.00, the Oct 6 high and a bull trigger. Price has also arrived at a trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high. The trendline intersects at 3490.40 and a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. Initial firm support is at 3352.00, the Oct 14 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 3: 3923.88 50.0% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3839.78 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3820.00 High Oct 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 3702.00 @ 06:50 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 3388.70 1.764 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

Despite the pullback, S&P E-Minis maintains a firmer tone following last week’s reversal from 3502.00, the Oct 13 low. The latest recovery suggests the contract has entered a corrective phase and if correct, this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached. The break reinforces a bullish theme and opens 3820.00, the Oct 5 high and a bull trigger. Key support is unchanged at 3502.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $95.17/98.75 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $93.20 @ 06:59 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $88.67 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 2: $86.29 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low of $88.77. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A number of important retracement levels have recently been breached. Attention is on $88.67 next, 61.8% of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally. A break would open $86.29, the 76.4% level. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at $95.17, the Oct 12 high. Clearance of this level would ease the bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (X2) Bounce From Tuesday’s Low Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $98.95 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $96.82 - High Aug 31
• RES 2: $90.07/93.64 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $87.24 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $86.84 @ 06:57 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $82.09 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $80.35 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $79.14 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $76.25 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

WTI futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low of $82.09. The outlook remains bearish and a resumption of weakness would open $80.35, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially $76.25 further out, the Sep 26 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would instead suggest scope for a climb towards the key short-term resistance at $93.64, the Oct 10 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $90.07, Oct 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $1735.1 - High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1684.0/1697.5 - High Oct 11 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1669.7 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1631.1 @ 07:23 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $1622.5 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold traded lower Wednesday. The yellow metal maintains a softer tone following the recent reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the bull phase between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. The focus is on the key support and bear trigger at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. On the upside, a breach of $1729.5 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.187/21.242 - High Oct 10 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $19.357 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.440 @ 07:25 BST Oct 20
• SUP 1: $17.967 - Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver remains vulnerable and last week’s move lower has reinforced the bearish condition. The 50-day EMA has been cleared. This signals scope for a continuation of the current bear leg and the focus is on the next support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 28 low and the bear trigger. Initial resistance is seen at $19.357, the 50-day EMA.