MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Sees Notable Bullish Shift

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Sees Notable Bullish Shift

• S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and the contract is holding the bulk of recent gains this morning. This has resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, the Oct 5 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of both the 50-day EMA and resistance at 3492.00, the Oct 6 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD is extending gains early Wednesday, topping the reversal trigger and key resistance at October 4th’s 0.9999. This week’s price action is potentially significant. EURGBP trades lower early Wednesday, keeping the short-term bear threat present. The strong reversal from 0.9266, Sep 26 high and the breach of support at 0.8649, the Oct 4 low. AUDUSD now trades a point above the 20-day EMA early Wednesday, cementing a break above yesterday to confirm a bullish shift to the technical backdrop. This opens gains toward key resistance at the Oct 4 highs at 0.6547.
• Despite the latest bounce, Gold remains in a downtrend. This follows the recent reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the bull phase between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price remains below the trendline resistance. The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. This is highlighted by the current moving average set-up. A resumption of weakness would open $79.63, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially $75.70 further out, the Sep 26 low.
• Bund futures are firmer again early Wednesday, extending the recovery from Friday’s low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective, but the outlook is improving on the break of 138.52, the Oct 14 high. Gilt futures are holding the bulk of recent gains, confirming the extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher this week has resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Breakout?

• RES 4: 1.0268 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0051 High Sep 20
• RES 1: 1.0027 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 1.0022 @ 08:45 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 0.9817 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.9705/9633 Low Oct 21 / 13
• SUP 3: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing

EURUSD is extending gains early Wednesday, topping the reversal trigger and key resistance at October 4th’s 0.9999. This week’s price action is potentially significant. The pair is trading above an important resistance level at 0.9874 - the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. A clear break of this level would highlight a channel breakout and a stronger bullish reversal. The focus turns to 1.0051, the Sep 20 high. Initial key support is at 0.9705.

GBPUSD TECHS: Early Upside

• RES 4: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1664 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1590 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1578 High Oct 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1569 @ 08:52 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 1.1061/1058 Low Oct 21 / 13
• SUP 2: 1.0924/22 Low Oct 12 / 50.0% of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.0787 61.8% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0541/0350 Low Sep 28 / All Time Low

GBPUSD is rallying again early Wednesday, putting the pair at a new multi-week high of 1.1578. This looks like a clean break above the 1.1495 bull trigger and is a significant technical development. The 2.0% 10-dma envelope has been tested and topped intraday, improving the outlook further. This opens gains toward the 1.1590 level, which marks the Sep 14 high. The short-term outlook is firmer and remains bullish. The current cycle highlights scope for a stronger reversal. On the downside, key near-term support is unchanged at 1.0924, the Oct 12 low. A break of this level would instead reinstate a bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 3: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• PRICE: 0.8672 @ 08:58 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 0.8657 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP trades lower early Wednesday, keeping the short-term bear threat present. The strong reversal from 0.9266, Sep 26 high and the breach of support at 0.8649, the Oct 4 low, suggests scope for an extension lower near-term with sights on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8867, the Oct 12 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Well Above Monday’s Low

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71/150.44 High Oct 24 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 24 pullback
• PRICE: 147.09 @ 09:00 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 146.84/145.56 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24
• SUP 2: 145.17 Low Oct 10
• SUP 3: 143.51 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY managed to find support Monday at 145.56 and just below the 20-day EMA currently at 146.84. The volatile pullback is likely a correction and the primary uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies continue to highlight a positive trend cycle. Attention is on 150.00. A break of this level would reinforce the bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards the 151.95, the bull trigger and last week’s high (Oct 21). Key support is 145.56.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Monday’s Gains

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.73 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 147.53 @ 09:01 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 145.64 / 143.80 High Sep 12 / Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 141.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest sharp pullback appears to be a correction. The cross has found strong support below 144.18, the 20-day EMA and key support has been defined at 143.80, Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open last Friday’s high of 148.40. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.

AUDUSD TECHS: Building on Recent Strength

• RES 4: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 0.6563 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6484 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 0.6473 @ 09:03 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6035 1.50 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD now trades a point above the 20-day EMA early Wednesday, cementing a break above yesterday to confirm a bullish shift to the technical backdrop. This opens gains toward key resistance at the Oct 4 highs at 0.6547. Despite the recent gains, however, moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. This keeps support at 0.6133 in view, a Fibonacci projection.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Watch The Close Below 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4040 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3614 @ 09:10 BST Oct 25
• SUP 1: 1.3531 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 1.3503 Low Oct 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3448 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Sep 21

USDCAD pierced the 20-day EMA support Tuesday, and is extending losses. Tuesday’s close is a bearish development and works against the broader uptrend. For now, the recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, is reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and 1.3838, Sep 30 high has been cleared. A clear break and close below the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a pullback towards 1.3503, Oct 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Gains Extend

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.23 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 140.13 High Oct 6
• RES 1: 138.81 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 138.57 @ 08:20 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 3: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011
• SUP 4: 132.61 0.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures are firmer again early Wednesday, extending the recovery from Friday’s low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective, but the outlook is improving on the break of 138.52, the Oct 14 high. Strength north of here would suggest scope for a stronger bounce, potentially opening up the 50-day EMA, at 141.23. A reversal lower and a break of 134.02 would mark the end of the corrective cycle and confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 119.960 High Oct 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 119.650 Intraday High
• PRICE: 119.540 @ 08:22 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 2: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.410 3.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures are clocking four consecutive sessions of gains, extending the corrective bounce off the cycle lows printed late last week. The over-arching trend remains down for now and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower cleared support and the bear trigger at 118.020, Sep 28 low. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens 117.630, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 119.960, the Oct 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Primary Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.180/360 High Oct 13 and key resistance/ High Oct 6
• RES 1: 106.964 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.825 @ 08:24 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 106.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.800 Low Nov 2008 (cont)

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down and the latest recovery is likely a correction. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 106.535, Sep 26 low. This has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 106.270 next, a Fibonacci extension. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 107.180, the Oct 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Clears Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 105.34 High Sep 22
• RES 2: 103.60 Low Sep 20
• RES 1: 102.45 High Sep 23
• PRICE: 101.47 @ 08:26 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 97.80/95.82 20-day EMA / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14
• SUP 3: 90.99/90.38 Low Sep 28 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

Gilt futures are holding the bulk of recent gains, confirming the extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher this week has resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach of this level strengthens bullish conditions and opens 102.45 next, the Sep 23 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.71 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 3: 115.70 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 114.51 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 114.29 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 113.73 @ 08:29 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 107.27 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.68 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

The BTP futures trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective for now. The reversal from 116.71, Oct 4 high, signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 corrective cycle. A resumption of weakness would open the key support and bear trigger at 108.13, Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. 116.71 marks the key resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish And Has Cleared Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3590.00 High Oct 26
• RES 1: 3585.00 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 3581.00 @ 08:34 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 3: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone
• SUP 4: 3305.00 Low Oct 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of both the 50-day EMA and resistance at 3492.00, the Oct 6 high and a bull trigger. Price has also breached trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high. The trendline intersects at 3469.60 and the breach strengthens bullish conditions. Initial firm support is at 3418.00, the Oct 14 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 3: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 3923.88 50.0% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 3874.25 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 3841.25 @ 08:42 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: 3729.44/3641.50 20-day EMA / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and the contract is holding the bulk of recent gains this morning. This has resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, the Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price is trading above the 50-day EMA, at 3829.80. The break higher Tuesday strengthens the short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards 3923.88, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Trading Below Resistance

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $95.17/98.75 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $92.94 @ 09:12 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $91.00/88.67 - Low Oct 21 / 61.8% of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 2: $86.29 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are broadly unchanged and trading below last week’s high. A bearish theme remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A number of important retracement levels have recently been breached. Attention is on $88.67 next, 61.8% of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally. A break would open $86.29, the 76.4% level. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at $95.17, the Oct 12 high. Clearance of this level would ease the bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $88.66/92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $87.14 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $85.01 @ 09:13 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $81.30 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. This is highlighted by the current moving average set-up. A resumption of weakness would open $79.63, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially $75.70 further out, the Sep 26 low. The bear trigger is $81.30, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, the key short-term resistance to watch is at $92.34, the Oct 10 high. Initial firm resistance is at $88.66, Oct 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $1735.1 - High Sep 12 and a key resistance
  
• RES 3: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1691.7 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1673.6 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1650.0 @ 09:14 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Despite the latest bounce, Gold remains in a downtrend. This follows the recent reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the bull phase between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price remains below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. Sights are on the key support and bear trigger at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1691.7, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.187/21.242 - High Oct 10 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $19.752 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $19.651 @ 09:16 BST Oct 26
• SUP 1: $17.967 - Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver remains vulnerable despite the recovery from last week’s lows. The recent move below the 50-day EMA has reinforced bearish conditions. This signals scope for a continuation of the reversal that started Oct 4 and the focus is on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger. Initial resistance is seen at $20.187, the Oct 10 high.