MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUDUSD Breaches Resistance

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Breaches Resistance

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has traded through resistance at the 20-day EMA and is trading at its recent highs. This highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract recently traded through the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal. An extension higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high.
• GBPUSD traded higher last Friday resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.2571. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a short-term bullish set-up and signal scope for a stronger correction near-term. USDJPY traded lower last Friday extending the volatile reversal that started Apr 29. A number of key short-term support levels have been cleared and the pair did trade through the 20- and 50 day EMAs. This exposes the next key support at 151.41, a trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. AUDUSD traded higher Friday and in the process breached resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This opens 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance.
• Gold is in consolidation mode. A bearish condition remains intact. The precious metal has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. WTI futures traded lower last week and the contract is currently trading just above its recent lows. Price has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.05. The clear breach of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and highlights scope for a deeper correction.
• Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0851 Bear channel top drawn from the Dec 28 high
• RES 1: 1.0811 High May 3
• PRICE: 1.0766 @ 05:52 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.0724 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.0650/0601 Low May 1 / Low Apr 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023
• SUP 4: 1.0515 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s gains have improved the short-term technical set-up. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a continuation near-term and attention is on the bear channel top at 1.0851. The channel is drawn from the Dec 28 high and represents the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at 1.0650, the May 1 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2667 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2634 High May 03
• PRICE: 1.2533 @ 06:03 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.2466 Low May 1 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

GBPUSD traded higher last Friday resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.2571. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a short-term bullish set-up and signal scope for a stronger correction near-term. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.2667, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support has been defined at 1.2466, the May 1 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present Despite S/T Gains

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8601/45 61.8% of the Apr 23 - 30 bear leg / High Apr 23
• PRICE: 0.8577 @ 06:12 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 0.8547/31 Low May 2 / Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

A bear threat in EURGBP remains present despite recent gains - a correction. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on support at 0.8521, the Apr 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 low and Aug 23 2023 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8645, the Apr 23 high. First resistance to watch is 0.8601, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 159.55 2.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 158.97 2.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 157.99/158.44 High May 1 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: 156.28 High May 2
• PRICE: 154.50 @ 06:33 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 151.41 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 150.81 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 150.21 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 29 bull cycle

USDJPY traded lower last Friday extending the volatile reversal that started Apr 29. A number of key short-term support levels have been cleared and the pair did trade through the 20- and 50 day EMAs. This exposes the next key support at 151.41, a trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen the short-term bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is 156.28, the May 2 high. For now, gains appear to be a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 171.64 2.00 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 171.56 High Apr 29
• RES 2: 170.04 1.764 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 1: 167.39/168.66 High May 2 / 1
• PRICE: 166.33 @ 06:48 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 164.19/02 50-day EMA / Low May 3
• SUP 2: 163.02 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 162.28 Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: 161.95 Low Mar 18

The primary trend in EURJPY is bullish and the recent volatile bearish phase is considered corrective. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The cross has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at 164.87, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The 50-day EMA, at 164.19, has also been pierced. A clear break of these support points would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is 167.39, the May 2 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Bullish Extension Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6705 High Jan 15
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6647 High May 3
• PRICE: 0.6592 @ 08:00 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 0.6534 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6465/6363 Low May 1 / Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23

AUDUSD traded higher Friday and in the process breached resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This opens 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a move below 0.6465, the May 1 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3682 @ 08:09 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.3626 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

Despite the latest pullback in USDCAD, a bullish trend condition remains intact for now and the move lower appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. Note too, that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3626, the 50-day EMA. This average was pierced last Friday, but remains intact as a support, for now.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 3: 132.24 High Apr 19
• RES 2: 131.87 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.57 High May 3
• PRICE: 131.55 @ 05:33 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 129.83/53 Low Apr 30 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 131.87, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.569 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.290 High May 3
• PRICE: 117.180 @ 05:41 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 116.230 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low of 116.230 on Apr 30. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 117.569, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be viewed as a bullish signal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.525 High Apr 23
• RES 1: 105.357/395 20-day EMA / High May 3
• PRICE: 105.345 @ 05:53 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 105.180/045 Low May 3 / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.917 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The break in April of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Last Tuesday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Sights are on the 105.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is 105.357, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but remains intact for now.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 98.23 High Apr 12
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.65 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 97.43 High May 3
• PRICE: 96.96 @ Close May 3
• SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards 95.00 handle. Resistance to watch is at 97.65, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.28 High Mar 14
• RES 2: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 118.61/119.10 High May 6 / High Apr 10
• PRICE: 118.02 @ Close May 6
• SUP 1: 116.93/115.76 Low Apr 30 / Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. Recent weakness has reinforced a bearish theme. Support at 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a bear trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and open 115.70 initially, the Dec 8 2023 low (cont). Key short-term resistance to watch is 119.10, the Apr 10 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5006.00 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 4953.00 @ 06:22 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 4880.90/4862.00 Low Apr 25 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract recently traded through the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal. An extension higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high. Initial resistance is at 5006.00, the Apr 30 high. Key support lies at 4762.00, a break would be bearish. Initial support to watch is 4880.90, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Has Traded Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 5246.18 76.4% retracement of the Apr 1 - 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 5209.25 High May 7
• PRICE: 5208.00 @ 07:17 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 5130.4 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5036.25/4963.50 Low May 2 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4863.75 Low Jan 19

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has traded through resistance at the 20-day EMA and is trading at its recent highs. This highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition and a continuation higher would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Initial resistance is 5246.18, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support lies at 5036.25, the May 2 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $95.18 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $88.64/91.18 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $78.69 @ 06:58 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $82.32 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bearish theme remains intact. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this EMA signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $78.65 @ 07:08 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $77.91 - Low May 6
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded lower last week and the contract is currently trading just above its recent lows. Price has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.05. The clear breach of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and highlights scope for a deeper correction. This has opened $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2352.6/2431.5 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2320.4 @ 07:15 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $2277.4 - Low May 3
• SUP 2: $2250.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is in consolidation mode. A bearish condition remains intact. The precious metal has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2250.3, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle is allowing a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $27.732/29.797 - High Apr 26 / 12
• PRICE: $27.233 @ 08:14 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $26.067/018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver traded lower last week, confirming an extension of the pullback from $29.797, the Apr 12 high. This move down maintains the current corrective cycle and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at $26.121. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. Initial resistance to watch is at $27.732, the Apr 26 high.