MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUDUSD Remains in Bearish Cycle

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Remains in Bearish Cycle

• The E-mini S&P contract is trading below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). Prices have tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the channel top intersects at 4616.73 today. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bullish conditions. Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price remains above the 50-day EMA at 4348.70. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high.
• GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The pair last week breached support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.2866. A continuation lower would expose the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2714. USDJPY traded solidly throughout the Friday session. Recent gains have resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and an extension lower would pave the way for a move towards 0.6651, the Jul 11 low. Further out, the next key support level lies at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low.
• The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. Friday’s print above $77.15, the Jul 13 high, reinforces the bullish theme. A clear break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the trend and open $78.10, the Apr 24 high. Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces current conditions. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1.
• Bund futures remain below last week’s highs. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bullish environment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 135.00. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s break of resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforce current positive conditions.

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1355 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1229 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.1123 @ 06:10 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.1095/60 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1012 High Jun 22
• SUP 3: 1.1004 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 1.0960 20-day EMA

Last week’s pullback in EURUSD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support levels are located at 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and 1.1060, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this support zone would signal scope for a deeper correction, towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0960. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1276, the Jul 18 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3228 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2965 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2872 @ 06:23 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.2816 Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 1.2801 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Jun-July Upleg
• SUP 3: 1.2751 Low Jul 10
• SUP 4: 1.2714 50-day EMA

GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The pair last week breached support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.2866. A continuation lower would expose the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2714. The base of the bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low, intersects at 1.2676 and represents a key trend support. The medium-term outlook remains bullish. Key resistance is at 1.3142, the Jul 14 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8702 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8641 @ 06:38 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 0.8621 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8597 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8564 Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support

EURGBP remains in a short-term uptrend following recent strong gains and momentum is pointed higher for now, signalling scope for an extension towards the 100-dma of 0.8702 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8597, the 20-day EMA. A move through this average would instead highlight a top and expose key support at 0.8504, the Jul 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Has Cleared The 20- And 50-Day EMAs

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.73 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 142.08 61.8% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 141.51 @ 06:48 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 139.75 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 138.77 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY traded solidly throughout the Friday session. Recent gains have resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Attention is on 142.08, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, key support has been defined at 137.25, the Jul 14 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.79 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.05 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 157.57 @ 06:59 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 155.59 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 154.60 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 153.52/49 50-day EMA / Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 151.61 High May 2

EURJPY trend conditions are bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and the price sequence of higher highs and and higher lows remains intact. Attention is on the bull trigger at 158.00, the Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support, drawn from the Mar 24 low, intersects at 154.60.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.67878/6847 High Jul 21 / 20
• PRICE: 0.6736 @ 08:19 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 0.6712 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and an extension lower would pave the way for a move towards 0.6651, the Jul 11 low. Further out, the next key support level lies at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention initially on 0.6847, the Jul 20 high. The key bull trigger is at 0.6900, the Jun 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3304 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3243 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 1.3209 @ 08:30 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD continues to trade above support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position signalling a downtrend and a break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3304, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 135.34 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 133.87 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 133.05 @ 04:43 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 132.60 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 132.23 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 131.92 Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally

Bund futures remain below last week’s highs. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bullish environment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 135.00, the Jun 27 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Jul 10. Initial support to watch lies at 132.60, the Jul 17 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.090/378 High Jul 20 / 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 115.710 @ 04:53 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 115.420 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Recent gains in Bobl futures reinforce the short-term bullish theme and the pullback from last week’s high appears to be a correction. Attention is on key short-term resistance that has been defined at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and open 116.990, the Jun 12 high. On the downside, a move through 115.420, the Jul 17 low would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.365 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.030 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 104.930 @ 05:15 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 104.5805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend despite the latest pullback from 105.185, the Jul 19 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support to watch is 104.805, the Jul 17 low. A break would expose key support at and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 98.80 High may 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 96.61 @ Close Jul 21
• SUP 1: 96.11 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 95.20 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s break of resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforce current positive conditions. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for gain towards 99.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 94.58, the Jul 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 117.48 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 116.27 @ Close Jul 21
• SUP 1: 115.09 Low Jul 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures remain below last week’s high of 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact and attention is on the key near-term hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4435.00 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 4402.00 @ 05:26 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 4348.70/4220.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price remains above the 50-day EMA at 4348.70. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial support is at the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Watching Resistance AT The Bull Channel Top

• RES 4: 4673.55 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4609.25 High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4563.25 @ 05:49 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 4498.10 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12 4368.50 Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4397.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4370.13 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract is trading below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). Prices have tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the channel top intersects at 4616.73 today. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bullish conditions open the March 29th 2022 high at 4631.00. A corrective pullback would initially target the 20-day EMA at 4498.10 for support. The average marks the first key short-term level to watch.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 3: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.77 - High Apr 19
• RES 1: $81.75/82.06 - High Jul 13 / 76.4% of Apr 12 - May 4 downleg
• PRICE: $80.83 @ 07:03 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $78.19 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and the recent shallow pullback appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on the bull trigger $81.75, the Jul 13 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and expose $82.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.19, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 3: $80.05 - High Apr 18
• RES 2: $78.10 - High Apr 24
• RES 1: $77.38 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 bear leg
• PRICE: $76.78 @ 07:14 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $73.78 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. Friday’s print above $77.15, the Jul 13 high, reinforces the bullish theme. A clear break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the trend and open $78.10, the Apr 24 high. Further out, this would signal scope for a climb towards $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1996.4 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1963.7 @ 08:06 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $1949.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces current conditions. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, a Fibonacci retracement point. The yellow metal remains above support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1949.6. This average represents an important short-term level.

SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.441 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.606 @ 08:36 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $24.041 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.793 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The near-term bull trigger has been defined at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jun 23, and pave the way for a climb towards $26.135, the May 5 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $23.793, the 50-day EMA.