MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Threat Persists for Stocks
Price Signal Summary – Bear Threat Persists for Stocks
- A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. The medium-term trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5309.17, has been pierced.
- EURUSD traded higher Tuesday, extending the current bull cycle and once again, this marks a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. Note that MA studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and this week’s fresh cycle lows strengthen a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
- Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The S/T trend outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Recent gains are considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 HIgh Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0908 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0604 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0517 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD traded higher Tuesday, extending the current bull cycle and once again, this marks a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. Note that MA studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0517, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 1.2966 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.2928 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 1.2718 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2605 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
The trend in GBPUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. A Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2618, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.8434 @ 06:45 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 0.8378/8335 Low Mar 10 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces the current bullish theme. The cross has breached 0.8419, 76.4% of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8335, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is in overbought territory. A pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 151.85 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.88 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 148.20 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 145.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and this week’s fresh cycle lows strengthen a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Sights are on 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
EURJPY TECHS: Reversal Higher Extends
- RES 4: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 1: 161.79 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 161.53 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 158.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
EURJPY traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. A short-term bull theme remains intact following the strong reversal that started Feb 28. The cross has pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 162.70, the Jan 28 high. Initial support to watch is 158.91, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6287 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact for now. A resumption of gains and a stronger recovery would expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4473/4543 High Mar 10 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4453 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Oversold Trend Position But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 126.85 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.650 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains in play, following last week’s move down. Short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.625 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The contract has traded through a key support at 106.735, Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear cycle is in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.63 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 91.90 @ Close Mar 11
- SUP 1: 91.67/90.71 Low Mar 7 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The S/T trend outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Recent gains are considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 116.05 @ Close Mar 11
- SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.56, the Mr 5 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Testing Support AT The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5426.04/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5362.00 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5309.17, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00 handle.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Has Entered Oversold Territory
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5963.30 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5757.75/5880.10 High Mar 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5582.75 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 5534.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024
- SUP 3: 5499.25 Low Sep 9 2024
- SUP 4: 5444.55 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are set on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5963.30, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.49 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $69.56 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Bearish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.49, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.20 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $66.18 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.20, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2965.1 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2930.3/2956.2 - High Mar 7 / High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2911.7 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $2880.3/2832.7 - Low Mar 10 / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2829.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a move lower would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2829.8. The 50-day average marks a key support.
SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.397 - High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.939 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $31.640/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and the latest recovery reinforces this theme. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.640, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.