MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Bund Theme Intact
Price Signal Summary – Bearish Bund Theme Intact
- A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present following last week’s move lower that reinforced a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Friday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low.
- The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger uptrend. The trend needle in USDJPY points south and last week’s resumption of the downtrend reinforces current conditions. The move down has exposed 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement, and 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and the latest pullback appears corrective. The pair has recovered from last week’s low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543.
- Gold is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s move lower signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 2024
- RES 1: 1.0889 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 1.0840 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0544 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0473 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s gains mark a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. The pair is trading at recent highs and note that moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.0937, the Nov 5 / 6 2024 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0487, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Last Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 1.2945 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 1.2918 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 1.2648 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2580 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger uptrend. The pair is testing 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2593, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- RES 1: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8328 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong rally in EURGBP last week highlights a clear short-term reversal. The cross is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The latest impulsive rally signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8328, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low. For now, a pullback would be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.21 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.33/150.40 High Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 147.71 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 2: 146.26 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend needle in USDJPY points south and last week’s resumption of the downtrend reinforces current conditions. The move down has exposed 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement, and 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring The Next Resistance
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 2: 161.80 High Jan 30
- RES 1: 161.28 High Mar6
- PRICE: 160.02 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 158.55 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
Last week’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential reversal. The cross is holding on to its latest gains reinforcing a bullish theme. Price has pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 158.55, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6318 @ 07:42 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 0.6282/6187 Low Mar 7 / 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD traded higher last week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and a stronger recovery would undermine a recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4450/4543 High Mar 5 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4358 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and the latest pullback appears corrective. The pair has recovered from last week’s low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support lies at 1.4242, Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.29 High MAr 7
- PRICE: 127.35 @ 05:48 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 126.64 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 126.56 2.500 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support
Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows and a bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s move lower signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is now within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.690 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures traded sharply lower last week and a bearish theme remains in play for now. A key short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The subsequent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards the 116.000 handle. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Gains Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.735 Low Feb 19
- RES 1: 106.685 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 106.565 @ 06:15 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 106.405 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The contract has breached a key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The current bear cycle is in oversold territory and a correction would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 106.735, the Feb 19 low.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.63 HIgh Mar 7
- PRICE: 92.10 @ Close Mar 7
- SUP 1: 91.67/90.71 Low Mar 7 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, the Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 116.52 @ Close Mar 7
- SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following last week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at last Wednesday’s 118.56 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5508.00 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 5445.11/5373.00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5306.33 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 5306.33. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle next.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5993.68 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5884.00/5942.67 High Mar 4 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5743.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 5673.00 Low Mar 7
- SUP 2: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
- SUP 3: 5584.85 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present following last week’s move lower that reinforced a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Friday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. The focus is on 5658.00, the Sep 12 2024 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5993.68, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.83 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $70.31 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Bearish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The sharp sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $73.83, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Southbound
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.54 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $67.06 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.54, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2965.1 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2930.3/2956.2 - High Mar 7 / High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2913.0 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: $2891.9/2832.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2823.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
Gold is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2823.8. The 50-day average marks a key support.
SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.765/33.397 - High Mar 5 / High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.585 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: $31.526/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and last week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.566, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.