MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish GBP/USD Theme Firms Further
Price Signal Summary – Bearish GBP/USD Theme Firms Further
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Near-term, the recent move down appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought signal to unwind. The contract has recently breached bull channel support. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. A corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement.
- A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and Friday’s extension reinforces current conditions. Support at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal signal. USDJPY has traded to a fresh cycle high today. Last week’s rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s bearish price action. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low.
- The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Friday, extending the current impulsive bull phase. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is consolidating but trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
- A bear threat in Bund futures remains present, despite Friday’s bounce which appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 131.23, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is for now considered corrective. Support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has recently been cleared. Note too that 97.67, 76.4% of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally, has also been breached.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.0921 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 2 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0802/85 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
- RES 1: 1.0757 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 1.0652 @ 05:45 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 1.0623 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally
- SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23
EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition and Friday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The break lower resulted in a breach of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of this year's bear cycle and sights are on 1.0611 next, 76.4% of the Oct - Dec bull rally. A break of this level would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.0885, the Apr 9 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Has Cleared Key Support
- RES 4: 1.2865 High Mar 11
- RES 3: 1.2803 High Mar 21
- RES 2: 1.2620/2709 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
- RES 1: 1.2540 Low Apr 2 / 1
- PRICE: 1.2459 @ 05:56 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 1.2427 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and Friday’s extension reinforces current conditions. Support at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal signal. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.2364, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 10 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support
- RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
- RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.8548 @ 06:40 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 0.8528/8504 Low Apr 12 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 2: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
EURGBP traded lower last week and the cross remains within this year’s broad range. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch is 0.8528, the Apr 12 low. A clear break would expose key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 and Aug 23 2023 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 3: 155.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 154.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 1: 153.98 1.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- PRICE: 153.83 @ 06:25 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 152.59 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 151.58150.25 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 149.03 Low Mar 19
- SUP 4: 147.44 Low Mar 14
USDJPY has traded to a fresh cycle high today. Last week’s rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Sights are on 153.98 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 151.58, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 167.36 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
- PRICE: 163.96 @ 07:01 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 163.13/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
- SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
- SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11
A sharp sell-off in EURJPY Friday resulted in a print below key support at 163.13 - the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The breach appears to be a false one and the cross is trading higher today. A clear break of this trendline is required to highlight a S/T reversal and this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.69. For bulls, key resistance is 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the primary uptrend.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6559/6644 50-day EMA / High Apr 9
- PRICE: 0.6483 @ 07:55 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 0.6456 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s bearish price action. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important short-term technical break. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Action
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3787 High Apr 12
- PRICE: 1.3756 @ 08:09 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 1.3682/3595 Low Apr 12 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 4: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The pair has cleared resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This paves the way for gains towards 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3478, the Apr 4 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
- RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
- RES 1: 133.05 High Apr 12
- PRICE: 132.37 @ 05:15 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 131.31 Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
- SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support
A bear threat in Bund futures remains present, despite Friday’s bounce which appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 131.23, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.
BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
- RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
- RES 1: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
- PRICE: 117.780 @ 05:32 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 117.200/160 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support
- SUP 3: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
A bearish threat in Bobl futures remains present and Friday’s strong gains appear - for now - to be a correction. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. This would open 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a short-term reversal.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
- RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
- RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
- RES 1: 105.680 High Apr 12
- PRICE: 105.585 @ 05:50 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 105.355 Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
- SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The move higher on Friday is considered corrective - for now. The break of support at 105.490, Feb 29 / Apr 9 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
- RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
- RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and the reversal trigger
- RES 1: 98.60/99.37 20-day EMA / High Apr 4 and key S/T resistance
- PRICE: 97.93 @ Close Apr 12
- SUP 1: 96.83/82 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 96.57 1.50 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 96.30 1.618 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is for now considered corrective. Support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has recently been cleared. Note too that 97.67, 76.4% of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally, has also been breached and key support at 96.83, the Feb 29 low, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 96.57, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 99.37, the Apr 4 high.
BTP TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
- RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
- PRICE: 118.33 @ Close Apr 12
- SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
- SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support
A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present despite Friday’s gains. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower. A continuation of the downleg would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Support To Watch Lies At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5008.00/5079.00 High Apr 8 / 2 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4921.00 @ 06:17 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 4879.00 Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 4853.30 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. A corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 4853.300, the 50-day EMA and marks the next key pivot support. The bull trigger and key resistance has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
- RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
- RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5188.25 @ 07:22 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 5150.00 Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 5100.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5018.00 Low Feb 21
- SUP 4: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Near-term, the recent move down appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought signal to unwind. The contract has recently breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low. The next key support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 5159.12. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (M4) Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12
- PRICE: $90.12 @ 07:02 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $87.89 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $84.87 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
Brent futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Friday’s fresh trend high reinforce bullish conditions and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is $87.89, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (K4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $87.67 - High Apr 11
- PRICE: $85.18 @ 07:15 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $83.70 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $80.70/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3
A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is consolidating but trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has breached $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $83.70, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12
- PRICE: $2359.4@ 07:17 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $2319.5/2264.8 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2175.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Friday, extending the current impulsive bull phase. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2264.8, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12
- PRICE: $24.462 @ 15:04 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $27.535/26.396 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $25.025/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support
Despite the pullback in Silver from Friday’s high, the trend outlook remains bullish. Fresh trend highs last week and a bullish moving average set-up, reinforce the current positive trend condition. The latest rally signals scope for a climb towards the $30.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support lies at $26.396, the 20-day EMA. A move lower in the metal would be considered corrective.