MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Oil Trend Intact
Price Signal Summary – Bearish Oil Trend Intact
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective.
- The GBPUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price trading at its latest highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. USDJPY has pulled back from Wednesday intraday high. The primary trend condition is bearish and the pullback is an early signal that the recent correction is over. Key resistance to watch is 151.17, the 50-day EMA.USDCAD is unchanged. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position.
- A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of gains appear corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $69.80, the Feb 4 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15. A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared the psychological $3000.0 handle. Today’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on 3079.2 next
- Bund futures have traded higher this week. For now, gains are considered corrective. A bearish trend theme is intact and the latest recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the contract has pierced resistance at 92.63, the Mar 7 high. A clear breach of this level would instead strengthen a bullish theme.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 18
- PRICE: 1.0898 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 1.0823/1.0739 Low Mar 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0599 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
EURUSD traded lower Wednesday and for now, the pair is trading below its recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play - MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. Initial key support to watch is 1.0599, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this set-up.
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2993 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 1.2911 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.2835 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2695 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
The GBPUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price trading at its latest highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently breached a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The clear break of this price point opens 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2695, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8386 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8349 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play despite Wednesday’s fade off highs. A recent bullish engulfing candle on Mar 14 - a reversal pattern - signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Support to watch is 0.8349, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, ahead of 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of 0.8474 would strengthen bullish conditions.
USDJPY TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.17/30 50-day EMA / High Mar 3
- RES 1: 150.15 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 148.35 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 147.42/146.54 Low Mar 13 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.35 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY has pulled back from Wednesday intraday high. The primary trend condition is bearish and the pullback is an early signal that the recent correction is over. Key resistance to watch is 151.17, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
EURJPY TECHS: Pivot Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18
- PRICE: 161.63 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 161.43 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.17 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
EURJPY has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. For now, the move down appears corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.17, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this level would open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6319 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 0.6259 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and Monday’s rally reinforces this theme. The latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Attention is on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3. On the downside, a move below key short-term support at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. First support to watch is 0.6259, the Mar 11 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4343 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is unchanged. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 128.94 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.47 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures have traded higher this week. For now, gains are considered corrective. A bearish trend theme is intact and the latest recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and has signalled scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 3: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 2: 117.645 50.0% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- RES 1: 117.434 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.320 @ 05:59 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 116.470/250 Low Mar 12 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The recent trend condition has been oversold and the move higher has allowed this set-up to unwind. The trend direction is down. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The recent sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Corrective Gains
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.735 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact. The latest recovery is considered corrective and is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Pierces Resistance
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.73 Intraday high
- PRICE: 92.58 @ 08:13 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 91.74 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 3: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the contract has pierced resistance at 92.63, the Mar 7 high. A clear breach of this level would instead strengthen a bullish theme and open 93.06, the Mar 4 low and a gap high on the daily chart. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a test of 90.71, the Mar 6 low and a bear trigger.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Correction
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.58 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.05 @ Close Mar 19
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Short-term gains in BTP futures are considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing this condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.58, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5506.00 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 5333.52/5284.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5555.52. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A continuation higher would open 5600.
E-MINI S&P: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 5955.55 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5830.45 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5759.75 High Mar 17
- PRICE: 5676.25 @ 13:44 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5955.55, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $72.97 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $71.19 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures are trading closer to their most recent highs. The recovery appears corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of support points. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $72.89, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (K5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $69.20 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.50 - High Mar 18
- PRICE: $67.18 @ 07:18 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: $64.85 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of gains appear corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $69.80, the Feb 4 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.20, 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High
- RES 4: $3106.8 - 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3100.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3057.5 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3045.7 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: $2999.5 - Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: $2943.8/2866.4 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared the psychological $3000.0 handle. Today’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on 3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $29443.8, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.233 - High Mar 18
- PRICE: $33.649 @ 08:08 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: $32.879 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.159/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver is trading closer to its recent highs. The metal has breached a key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.