MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Shooting Star Candle In EURUSD

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Candle Pattern Highlights A Potential Short-Term Top

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend but price continues to trade below 4050.75, the Nov 15 high. A recent period of consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. If correct, this reinforces the uptrend as did the recent break of 3928.00, Nov 1 high, that established a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 3887.16, the 50-day EMA. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains maintains the recovery that started in early October, marking an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the 4000.00 psychological handle next. Initial firm support lies at 3840.00, the Nov 17 low.
• In FX, EURUSD failed to hold on to Monday’s high. The weak close yesterday is a potential bearish development that points to a possible top. In pattern terms, Monday is a shooting star candle - a reversal signal. An extension lower would expose key support at 1.0223, Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a reversal and signal scope for a deeper pullback. A break of 1.0497, yesterday’s high, is required to resume recent bullish price action. Last week’s climb in GBPUSD marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.2177, the 200-dma. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1789, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY short-term trend conditions remain bearish. Monday’s extension resulted in a print below support at 137.68, the Nov 15 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25, last week’s high on Nov 21.
• On the commodity front, short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.2, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened the current bullish theme and opens $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. First support lies at $1730.3, the 20-day EMA. In the Oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and the latest bounce is considered corrective. Yesterday’s initial move lower resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at $74.96, Sep 28 low. This resumes the broader downtrend and opens $73.38, 1.00 projection of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing and the $70.00 psychological handle. Initial resistance is at $79.90, Friday’s high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a bullish tone despite the latest pullback. Last week’s breach of 141.09, the Nov 17 high, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also cleared the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal. Potential is seen for a climb towards 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.71. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish. Fresh cycle highs last week maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The bull trigger for a continuation of gains is 107.06, last Thursday’s high. Initial firm support lies at 104.78, the Nov 23 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Pattern

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Nov 24 / Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0497 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 1.0386 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.0297 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.0223/0198 Low Nov 21 / High Sep 12
• SUP 3: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 4: 1.0095 50-day EMA

EURUSD failed to hold on to Monday’s high. The weak close Monday is a potential bearish development that points to a possible top. In pattern terms, Monday is a shooting star candle - a reversal signal. An extension lower would expose key support at 1.0223, Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a reversal and signal scope for a deeper pullback. A break of 1.0497, yesterday’s high, is required to resume recent bullish price action.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 122.93 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2276 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 1.2177 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2154 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 1.2011 @ 05:57 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.1873 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.1789 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1631 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1500 Round number support

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish. Last week’s gains confirmed an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting current market sentiment. Sights are on 1.2177 next, the 200-dma. Key short-term support is seen at 1.1789, the 20-day EMA. Monday’s pullback is considered corrective, however, a break of 1.1771 would concern bulls.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8776 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8682 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8650 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

The EURGBP outlook remains bearish despite Monday’s gains. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this does suggest that the broader uptrend remains intact. A break of 0.8560 would threaten this bullish theme. Key resistance is at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 142.86 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 139.64/142.25 High Nov 24 / High Nov 21 and key resistance
• PRICE: 138.63 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 137.50 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY are unchanged and remain bearish following last week’s move lower. Monday’s extension resulted in a print below support at 137.68, the Nov 15 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25, last week’s high on Nov 21. A break of this level would alter the picture.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 144.94/146.14 20-day EMA / High Nov 24
• PRICE: 143.55 @ 06:44 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 143.05 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 3: 141.60 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY started the week on a softer note with price trading lower on Monday. The cross last week failed to confirm a clear break of short-term trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high. The trendline intersects at 145.48. Key short-term resistance at 141.10 also remains intact, Nov 9 high. This cements the underlying bearish threat. An extension lower would open the bear trigger at 142.57, the Nov 11 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6698 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.6634 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and last week’s recovery has reinforced this theme. Firm support lies at 0.6585, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high, would resume the uptrend and open the 0.6800 handle and above.

USDCAD TECHS: Is Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3605 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3505 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 1.3426 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.3442. Price has traded above the average, a clear break would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 1.3571, the Nov 10 high. Clearance of this level would also signal scope for a recovery towards 1.3605, trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 144.29 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 142.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.60 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 140.21 @ 05:18 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 139.71/138.26 20-day EMA / Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback. Last week’s breach of 141.09, the Nov 17 high, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also traded above the 50-day EMA at 140.13. The clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. Potential is seen for a climb towards 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.71.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.700 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 119.650 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 119.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 119.180 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 118.710 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 118.260 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bobl futures traded higher last week, piercing resistance at 120.530, the Nov 10 high. The outlook remains bullish, despite the latest pullback and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 120.151. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 119.180, the Nov 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Attention Is On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.063 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.685 @ 05:28 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode, with support at the Nov 8 low intact. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a break higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.063. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.07 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 105.86 @ Close Nov 28
• SUP 1: 104.78 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 109.47 next, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 123.71 123.6 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.66 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.98 @ Close Nov 28
• SUP 1: 118.31/117.51 Low Nov 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.58 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 114.68 Low Nov 10

BTP futures traded to fresh short-term cycle highs last week. The outlook is bullish and last week’s break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has traded above the 120.00 handle and this reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 122.00 next. On the downside, initial firm support is at 117.51, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-17 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 112-31 @ 19:40 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 112-14 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-04 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 111-27+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-12+ Low Nov 10

Treasury futures have pierced the Nov 16, 113-11 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and signal scope for an extension higher. Price continues to trade above the 50-day EMA - the recent break of this average strengthens the case for bulls. Sights are on 113-30 next, the Oct 4 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support to watch is at 112-04, the Nov 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3977.00 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 3942.00 @ 05:56 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 3840.00 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 3693.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3562.00 Low Nov 3

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend condition remains bullish with the contract trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains maintain the recovery that started in early October and confirms an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, also strengthened the case for bulls. The focus is on the 4000.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support is at 3840, the Nov 17 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3984.50 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 3928.73/3887.16 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish Despite Monday’s move lower - the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a flag formation - if correct, this is a bullish continuation pattern. The contract has recently breached 3928.00, Nov 1 high, establishing a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Firm support lies at 3887.16, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 3: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $90.93 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $86.87 - High Nov 25
• PRICE: $84.49 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $80.61 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $77.56 - 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 major uptrend
• SUP 4: $75.75 - Low Dec 27 2021 (cont)

Brent futures trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has pierced key support at $80.94, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards the $80.00 handle. Moving averages are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Resistance is at $86.87, the Nov 25 high.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $94.11 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $89.20/92.53 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 2: $82.43/84.30 - High Nov 18 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.90 - High Nov 25
• PRICE: $78.50 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 2: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $66.04 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and gains are considered corrective. Yesterday’s initial move lower resulted in a break of the bear trigger at $74.96, Sep 28 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and has opened $73.38, a Fibonacci projection and the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $79.90, Friday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1753.8 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $1730.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal recently breached $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. First support to watch is at the 20-day EMA that intersects at $1730.3.

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.251/253 - High Nov 15 / 50.0% of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.250 @ 07:58 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $20.585 - Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: $20.314 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and subsequent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, opening $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is seen at $20.585, the Nov 21 low.