MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Theme in GBP/USD Firms on Break of Key Support

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Theme in GBP/USD Firms on Break of Key Support

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and this is allowing a recent overbought signal to unwind. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low. A corrective cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement.
• A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair has traded lower today. Support at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and bear trigger has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal signal. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains and conditions remain bullish. This week’s rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and sights are on 153.39 next. USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high, has been cleared This paves the way for gains towards 1.3729, a Fibonacci retracement.
• A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high. The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading higher today, extending the current impulsive bull phase. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies.
• A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. This week’s resumption of weakness strengthens a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower again yesterday reinforcing a bearish theme. Support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has been cleared this week. Note too that 97.67, 76.4% of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally, has also been breached.

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0921 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0818/85 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• RES 1: 1.0757 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 1.677 @ 08:31 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 ‘23
• SUP 2: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

EURUSD is trading lower today as the pair extends this week’s bear cycle. The break lower this week reinstates a short-term bearish threat and confirms the end of the recent recovery between Apr 2 - 9. Key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, has been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish theme and opens 1.0656, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.0885, the Apr 9 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2865 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 1.2637/2709 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.2513 @ 08:33 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.2506 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2465 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair has traded lower today. Support at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and bear trigger has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal signal. This would open 1.2465, the 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Move Lower Considered Corrective For Now

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8542 @ 06:31 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 29 and Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP persists and the recent pullback - for now - appears to be a minor correction. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch is 0.8530, Mar 21 / 29 low. A break would instead be seen as a bearish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 154.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 153.98 1.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• PRICE: 153.17 @ 06:45 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 151.41/150.13 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 149.03 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 4: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support

USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains and conditions remain bullish. This week’s rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and sights are on 153.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 151.41, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 167.36 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 164.13 @ 07:07 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 163.79/163.02 20-day EMA / Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend outlook in EURJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. The cross is trading above a key short-term support at 163.02 marking the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a short-term reversal and would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.67. For bulls, key resistance is at 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6560/6644 50-day EMA / High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.6512 @ 07:56 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.6499 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD remains vulnerable following Wednesday sell-off. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3765 High Nov 22 2023
• RES 1: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3722 @ 08:07 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.3576 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 1.3343 Low Jan 12

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high, has been cleared This paves the way for gains towards 1.3729, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3765, the Nov 22 ‘23 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3478, the Apr 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 132.37/75 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 131.61 @ 05:30 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. This week’s resumption of weakness strengthens a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, is needed to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is 132.80, 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Conditions Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 117.794/118.310 20-day EMA / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.330 @ 05:45 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 117.200/160 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

A bearish threat in Bobl futures remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. This would open 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Heading South

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• RES 1: 105.627 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.445 @ 05:54 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 105.355 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 / Apr 9 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.627, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 98.05/99.37 Low Mar 15 / High Apr 4
• PRICE: 97.10 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 96.83/82 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 96.57 1.50 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 96.30 1.618 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower again yesterday reinforcing a bearish theme. Support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has been cleared this week. Note too that 97.67, 76.4% of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally, has also been breached and key support at 96.83, the Feb 29 low, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 96.57, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 99.37, the Apr 4 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 117.51 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower. A continuation of the downleg would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5008.00/5079.00 High Apr 8 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4950.00 @ 06:24 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 4886.00 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 4851.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support

A corrective cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 4851.40, the 50-day EMA and marks the next key pivot support. The bull trigger and key resistance has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Correction Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5308.50/33.50 High Apr 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5243.75 @ 07:22 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 5173.50 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 5158.82 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and this is allowing a recent overbought signal to unwind. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open the 50-day EMA, at 5158.82 and the next key pivot support. Key resistance is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $91.91 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $90.41 @ 07:01 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $87.62 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $84.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. The recent breach of resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, reinforced bullish conditions and this has led to a break of the psychological $90.00 handle. Sights are on $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is $87.62, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.63 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $85.86 @ 07:12 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $83.49 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.49/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $83.49, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2429.0 - 2.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2405.6 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• PRICE: $2385.1@ 07:18 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $2319.5/2256.5 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2169.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading higher today, extending the current impulsive bull phase. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2405.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2256.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $29.762 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $29.407 - 2.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• PRICE: $29.170 @ 08:17 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $27.535/26.240 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $24.908/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal is once again trading higher as it extends the current impulsive bull run. The trend condition is overbought, however, this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage. The latest rally signals scope for a climb towards $29.407, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, sights are on the psychological $30.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at $26.240, the 20-day EMA.